Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Jul.) The drop in labour cash earnings in July was driven by volatile bonus payments whereas regular earnings accelerated. While we expect the unemployment rate to rise again before long, wage growth should... 6th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australian dollar has further to fall At the start of the year, we were a lone voice forecasting that the Australian dollar would decline to US$0.65 by year-end. The Australian dollar has come under increasing pressure this month on a... 2nd September 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Aug.) & Unemployment (Jul.) With headline and core inflation unchanged in August, at 1.0% and 0.9% respectively, and unemployment also unchanged at 7.5% in July, the scene is set for the ECB to loosen policy further. 30th August 2019 · 2 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Surveys suggest payrolls will disappoint We estimate that employment growth slowed further in August, with non-farm payrolls rising by a below-consensus 110,000. 29th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Political risk back on the agenda Despite the poor global outlook, GDP growth across Emerging Asia actually picked up slightly in the second quarter, and our forecast is for a further gradual recovery over the remainder of the year... 26th August 2019 · 16 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Subsidies for Lost Generation, rugby spending boost The planned subsidies to encourage firms to hire more regular workers may lift wage growth a bit. Meanwhile, the upcoming Rugby World Cup could provide a welcome boost to demand as it will happen... 23rd August 2019 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Outlook for labour market remains challenging The recent weakness in economic activity should start to weigh on jobs growth before long, pushing up the unemployment rate further and resulting in weaker wage growth. While a softer labour market... 16th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Jul.) The strong rise in employment in July failed to make any inroads into the pool of unemployed workers. Employment growth is set to falter, pushing up the unemployment rate further before long. 15th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Wage Price Index (Q2) Wage growth treaded water in the second quarter and the recent loosening of the labour market suggests it will fall to 2% before long. 14th August 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Jun.) The labour market has shrugged off the 0.2% q/q fall in GDP in Q2, providing support to our view that the economy will recover in Q3. Indeed, employment rose by 115,000 on the quarter (consensus +60... 13th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Labour Force Survey (Jul.) The second consecutive monthly drop in employment will raise a few eyebrows among policymakers, but it’s the surge in hourly wage growth to 4.5% that will capture the most attention. Stronger wage... 9th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Jun.) Wage growth accelerated in June as regular earnings stopped falling and summer bonuses rose. However, wages increased even faster once we allow for sampling changes that will probably only disappear... 6th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Labour Market (Q2) The sharp fall in the unemployment rate is unlikely to prevent the RBNZ from cutting rates tomorrow given that labour market data are volatile and often prone to revision. What’s more, we expect the... 6th August 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jul.) The 164,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in July confirms that employment growth is trending lower, but it also suggests that the economy is still coping reasonably well amidst concerns over weaker... 2nd August 2019 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to take a breather before cutting rates further We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to take a breather and leave rates on hold at 1.0% at its upcoming meeting on Tuesday the 6th of August following the back to back rate cuts in June and July... 31st July 2019 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Falling profitability to weigh on investment The slowdown in domestic economic activity along with global trade tensions is becoming more of a concern for businesses in both countries. That means that sentiment has not been bolstered by the... 30th July 2019 · 10 mins read
