UK Economic Outlook Next government to benefit from economic tailwind The next government, which the polls ahead of the election on 4th July suggest will be a Labour one, will benefit from a combination of lower inflation, lower interest rates and faster economic growth... 25th June 2024 · 18 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (June 2024) The recent encouraging inflation data reinforce our view that the Fed will cut interest rates in September. We remain confident that core inflation is heading back to the 2% target, which should allow... 24th June 2024 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Policy easing to begin soon We expect economic growth in most countries in Asia to slow in the second half of 2024, as tighter fiscal policy, high interest rates and weaker global growth all weigh on demand. Inflation is back to... 20th June 2024 · 28 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Jun. 2024) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. While the economy has only narrowly avoided a recession, activity should rebound over coming... 18th June 2024 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (May 2024) Although the unemployment rate fell anew in May, leading indicators continued to point to a marked rise in the months ahead. All told, the data suggest that the RBA will remain in its “wait and see”... 13th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (June 2024) Our Global Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest data suggest that economic activity has continued to improve in the past... 12th June 2024 · 0 mins read
Japan Economics Update Revisiting the puzzle of falling job vacancies While the official job openings figures have fallen since late-2022, the bulk of the evidence suggests that firms are facing increasingly severe job shortages. One explanation for the fall in job... 12th June 2024 · 4 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will wait until early-2025 to cut rates We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave rates unchanged at its meeting next week. Although underlying inflation remains uncomfortably high, it is unlikely to meet the threshold for a... 11th June 2024 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Apr. 2024) The stickiness of wage growth in April will be a lingering concern for the Bank of England. But with employment falling sharply and the unemployment rate climbing, we think wage growth will soon be... 11th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (June 2024) The latest data has been a bit stronger than we had anticipated and suggests that the recovery in euro-zone activity may continue at a moderate pace. The labour market remains tight, with unemployment... 10th June 2024 · 1 min read
CE Spotlight Spotlight: The future of global macro and markets leadership - Will the US be overtaken? We expect the US to remain the world’s pre-eminent global economy for the foreseeable future. Not only will its own economic performance remain comparatively strong – not least as the advent of AI... 10th June 2024 · 1 min read
CE Spotlight Spotlight: Chapter 2 - Will the US retain its economic lead and who might challenge it? The US’s economic leadership is partly related to its sheer size, but its population also works more than other countries and it fares better on productivity. While the US economy faces various... 10th June 2024 · 39 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Wage growth may still be a concern for the Bank The Bank of Canada kicked off its loosened cycle this week and the accompanying communications left the door open for another cut in July, although still-strong wage pressures are one reason why the... 7th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (May 2024) The further rise in the unemployment rate in May shows that the labour market continues to loosen, but the surprising pick-up in wage growth still provides reason to be cautious about the idea that... 7th June 2024 · 2 mins read
