Latin America Economic Outlook Slow regional recovery, Argentina headed for default After a weak 2019, we expect that growth across most of Latin America will improve next year. That said, our forecasts for the regions two biggest economies – Brazil and Mexico – are below consensus... 16th October 2019 · 27 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Russia and Turkey to recover, CEE to lose its shine Looser policy will support stronger economic growth in Russia, as well as in Turkey (so long as US sanctions don’t get much worse), in the coming quarters. In contrast, the economies of Central and... 16th October 2019 · 26 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Aug.) The drop in employment and tick down in wage growth in August is further evidence that deeper fissures are starting to appear in the labour market. However, the unemployment rate is still low and wage... 15th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA to cut to 0.25% and launch QE The end of the housing downturn has reduced the risk of a recession and we expect GDP growth in Australia to edge up from 1.7% this year to 2.0% in 2020. However, that’s still well below potential and... 15th October 2019 · 23 mins read
Labour Force Survey (Sep.) The second month of strong employment gains in September suggests that the labour market is continuing to shrug off global growth concerns. But with the gains driven by public sector and self-employed... 11th October 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Global Competitiveness Index gives food for thought The drop in India’s ranking in the World Economic Forum’s latest Global Competitiveness Index released this week is likely to reverse next year as reforms has been stepped up since the general... 11th October 2019 · 5 mins read
China Economic Outlook Slowdown delayed not averted China’s economy has remained resilient in recent months. But with the boom in property construction on borrowed time and headwinds from higher food inflation and cooling global demand likely to... 10th October 2019 · 27 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Further slowdown in China, but recovery elsewhere Regional growth is likely to remain very weak, with slower growth in China likely to offset a modest recovery in the rest of the region. China’s economy has remained resilient in recent months. But... 10th October 2019 · 49 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Headwinds strengthening We still think that the impact of October’s sales tax hike on consumption will be smaller than after previous tax hikes. But the outlook for external demand remains poor and firms have become less... 9th October 2019 · 22 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ to cut rates more sharply than most expect We now expect growth in New Zealand to ease from 2.2% in 2019 to 1.5% in 2020. Along with a rising unemployment rate, weak economic activity will prompt the RBNZ to cut rates twice next year. 9th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Aug.) Growth in regular earnings has been broadly steady around 0.5% in recent months. And while we expect the unemployment rate to rise, wage growth may climb to 1.0% over the coming months. 8th October 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Sep.) & International Trade (Aug.) The 136,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in September illustrates that while growth in employment (and broader activity) has slowed, it is not collapsing. Otherwise, the employment report was... 4th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Are we any closer to a rate cut? This week brought more evidence that consumers rushed to bring forward spending ahead of the tax hike that took place on Tuesday. Meanwhile, capacity shortages are diminishing and firms are becoming... 4th October 2019 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Focus How low can the natural rate of unemployment go? A continued decline in the natural rate of unemployment over the past 15 years means that there is probably a little bit more slack in the labour market than indicated by the near-record low... 2nd October 2019 · 14 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Natural unemployment rate probably still at 4% We still believe that the unemployment rate would have to fall to 4.0% to meet the RBA’s definition of full employment. With the actual unemployment rate now at 5.3% and rising, that means that the... 2nd October 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q3) & Labour Market (Aug.) The latest Tankan survey shows that business conditions are holding up better than expected while the labour market remains very tight. And even though firms are turning more cautious about the... 1st October 2019 · 3 mins read
