UK Economic Outlook Government’s fiscal plans unlikely to derail economy We are not expecting the planned fiscal policies of the government to derail the economy – we expect GDP to grow by 1.0% this year and by a decent 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026. Instead, the main... 1st October 2024 · 18 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) The economy is stuck in a period of below-potential GDP growth, with previous interest rate hikes weighing on consumer spending and investment. This will keep downward pressure on core inflation... 30th September 2024 · 1 min read
Japan Rapid Response Tankan (Q3 2024) The slight rise in business conditions across all firm sizes in the latest Tankan suggests that the robust rebound in activity in Q2 will continue into Q3. The Tankan’s headline index of business... 1st October 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to start easing policy from next February Although the RBA predictably left rates on hold at its meeting this week, it did soften its hawkish bias a touch. And with the latest CPI data pointing to a noticeable slowdown in underlying inflation... 27th September 2024 · 4 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Employment growth to ease further We think labour market conditions continued to ease in September, with a 100,000 rise in non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate edging up to 4.3%. 26th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook EM growth enters a slower phase Aggregate EM growth is entering a softer patch, despite the tailwind from the Fed’s easing cycle. Growth concerns will prompt central banks in much of Asia to cut interest rates. But stubborn... 25th September 2024 · 26 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA has less room to cut rates than the RBNZ A tight labour market and elevated public demand will keep the RBA from loosening policy before early-2025. Moreover, we expect the forthcoming easing cycle to be short-lived by past standards. By... 25th September 2024 · 20 mins read
UK Economics Weekly The BoE won’t diverge from the Fed for long It makes sense to us that the Bank of England will continue to cut interest rates gradually as it has yet to follow the Fed by shifting from worrying less about inflation and worrying more about weak... 20th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Tight labour market will delay interest rate relief The August labour force release provided little justification for the RBA to renege on its pledge to keep interest rates unchanged at least until the end of the year. Not only is employment growth on... 20th September 2024 · 4 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Sep. 2024) After kicking off its loosening cycle with a 50bp cut, we suspect the Fed will now revert to 25bp moves until the fed funds target range reaches 3.00% to 3.25% in mid-2025. Looser monetary policy... 19th September 2024 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Aug. 24) The labour market and population data released today are consistent with our view that the Reserve Bank of Australia will only lower interest rates in Q2 2025. 19th September 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Shelter inflation the last piece of the puzzle The 25bp vs 50bp debate, which seemed settled following Governor Christopher Waller’s cautious speech shortly after the August Employment Report, was blown back open this week by what appeared to be... 13th September 2024 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Retirement age increase, import slowdown The increase in China's retirement age announced today will provide a near-term boost to employment. But it won't do much to counteract long-run demographic headwinds. And while weak domestic demand... 13th September 2024 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Government isn’t what’s keeping the RBA from cutting We aren't convinced that the recent surge in public sector employment is the main cause behind Australia's poor productivity performance and stubborn inflationary pressures. But with the latest survey... 13th September 2024 · 5 mins read
