US Economics Update Consumption to keep rising regardless of fiscal delay Even though Congress failed to prevent the $600 additional UI payments from expiring last Friday, we still expect a deal in the coming weeks which will offset the continued hit to incomes from the... 3rd August 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.) The further rise in the manufacturing PMIs across Central Europe in July is an encouraging sign that the economic recovery continued at the start of Q3. But the fall in Russia’s PMI last month adds to... 3rd August 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) The official PMIs released on Friday had already pointed to a robust recovery at the start of Q3. But the Caixin index published today is even more upbeat and suggests that the pace of expansion in... 3rd August 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly All eyes on the next US fiscal package Mounting signs of a rapid rebound in the Chinese manufacturing and construction sectors, as well as a further depreciation in the US dollar, offered some support to industrial commodity prices this... 31st July 2020 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed lining up more support as fiscal talks drag on The second-quarter GDP data released this week, which showed output plunging by a record 32.9% annualised, highlighted the unprecedented hit to the economy from the pandemic. We know that activity... 31st July 2020 · 8 mins read
GDP by Industry (May) The stronger-than-expected 4.5% m/m rise in GDP in May provides further evidence that the initial rebound from the lockdowns was strong. We expect the pace of recovery to slow over the rest of the... 31st July 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (Jun.) The contraction in India’s core infrastructure industries index eased slightly in June, but the weakness of industry will still have weighed heavily on GDP in Q2. What’s more, there are already signs... 31st July 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2), HICP (Jul.) There are few silver linings in the data published today, which confirmed the massive slump in Q2. Parts of the economy have sprung back to life since April, but the damage already done plus the... 31st July 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Taiwan GDP (Q2) The 0.7% y/y drop in GDP last quarter was Taiwan’s worst performance since the Global Financial Crisis, but it still represents an unusually strong performance given what’s happening in the rest of... 31st July 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Spain GDP (Q2) The record plunge in Spain’s GDP of 18.5% q/q is likely to have been one of the biggest falls of any euro-zone country in Q2, illustrating the severity of the country’s lockdown and its slow and... 31st July 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response French GDP (Q2) While the catastrophic collapse in French Q2 GDP was hardly a shock given the country’s stringent lockdown, it still highlights the sheer extent of the economic damage wrought by the pandemic. High... 31st July 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Official PMIs (Jul.) The latest survey data suggest that last quarter’s rapid economic rebound has extended into the second half of the year thanks to recovering foreign demand and strong fiscal support. 31st July 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oil output cuts, austerity to hold back Saudi recovery The Saudi economy has embarked on a recovery in the past couple of months, but fiscal austerity and oil production cuts, as well as the ongoing suspension of pilgrimages, mean that it is likely to be... 30th July 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response GDP (Q2) The 32.9% annualised decline in GDP in the second quarter, more than three times larger than the previous record quarterly contraction, underscores the unprecedented hit to the economy from the... 30th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q2 Prov.) The 17.3% q/q slump in Mexico’s GDP in Q2 is likely to be one of the largest peak-to-trough falls in the emerging world. With the country still battling with its coronavirus outbreak, and the US... 30th July 2020 · 3 mins read
