Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Lockdown fatigue is making restrictions less effective In Australia, the lockdown in Melbourne in July was of similar intensity to the initial lockdown in April. Even so, retail sales only fell by 2% m/m in Victoria which still left them around 2% above... 27th August 2020 · 11 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Second wave unlikely to completely derail recoveries Having been among the fastest in the world at controlling the initial outbreak, Hong Kong, Vietnam and Korea are all at different stages of a second wave of infections. With new infections in Hong... 26th August 2020 · 14 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria’s limited fiscal space bites, SA banks in spotlight Nigerian government spending proposals for 2021, floated this week, signal just how much of a bind the authorities are in. Letting the naira weaken would be one way to address the large budget deficit... 21st August 2020 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s fiscal drama, weak regional recovery Fears that Brazil’s economy minister, Paulo Guedes (the linchpin of the government’s reform agenda), might resign have flared up again this week, and we think that there is now a political risk... 21st August 2020 · 5 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Jul.) July saw the fourth biggest monthly deficit in history behind only the first three months of this fiscal year. A massive increase in debt to over £2 trillion for the first time ever and above 100% of... 21st August 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly RBI dividend, agriculture outlook The RBI’s annual dividend transfer to the Finance Ministry will do little to ease the strains on the public finances, and the central budget deficit still looks set to widen sharply this year. On a... 21st August 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Second wave unlikely to derail the recovery Following a huge drop in Q2, GDP is set to rebound sharply this quarter. The second virus wave already shows signs of slowing again and we think it merely brought the recovery in domestic demand to a... 21st August 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB to leave policy on hold for several months The account of the ECB’s last monetary policy meeting suggests that there was a strong consensus in favour of the current policy settings. Absent a big surprise in the economic data or fresh financial... 20th August 2020 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Investment will take years to recover If the monthly activity data are anything to go by, GDP data for Q2 (Q1 of FY20/21) due at the end of the month will show that investment slumped by more than 30% y/y. That will prove the bottom given... 19th August 2020 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily Fiscal impasse points to political risks for US equities The failure of US legislators to agree a new fiscal support package to tackle the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic has so far not made much of a dent in equity markets. But it highlights... 14th August 2020 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fiscal stimulus hangs in the balance A week later, it is still unclear whether President Donald Trump’s executive orders on unemployment benefits and payroll taxes will provide any meaningful fiscal stimulus during the second half of... 14th August 2020 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Surge in truck sales adds to signs of a robust recovery Firms are adding to their fleets of trucks at the fastest pace in a decade, suggesting that they expect growth in industry to accelerate well above trend in the next few quarters. One near-term prop... 14th August 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Unemployment to rise in both countries Australian employment rose in July but more timely data suggest it may have started to decline since then. That makes sense given the renewed and tighter lockdown in Melboune. And we expect further... 14th August 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Focus How will policymakers deal with soaring public debt? The economic slump and the government’s fiscal response are driving a sharp rise in public debt in India. There is no immediate threat given low-interest rates and the likelihood that nominal GDP... 13th August 2020 · 14 mins read
UK Economics Update Big discounts boost eating out, but consumers still cautious The success of the Eat Out to Help Out (EOHO) scheme suggests that fears about the virus are not preventing activity. But as meals out only seem to be popular due to a heavy discount, consumers are... 11th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Debt restructurings: lessons from Argentina & Ecuador Argentina and Ecuador’s swift debt restructuring deals may provide a blueprint for other debt-distressed sovereigns. But these deals are not quite the success stories they seem at first sight. In any... 5th August 2020 · 3 mins read
