UK Economics Update Fiscal outlook isn’t as bad as it looks The Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, was right to say today that now is not the time to tighten fiscal policy. But given the OBR’s downbeat forecasts, the biggest danger is that the government is lured into... 25th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Central Bank Watch Vaccines won’t preclude looser policy The encouraging news about vaccines has led us to expect most restrictions in advanced economies to be removed by Q2 next year, allowing them to embark on steeper recoveries towards their pre-virus... 25th November 2020 · 15 mins read
Europe Economics Update How will the ECB “recalibrate” the PEPP? The ECB looks set to announce an increase in the size of its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme in December and to extend the time for which it pledges to make net purchases and reinvestments. 25th November 2020 · 5 mins read
India Chart Pack Oxford vaccine raises hopes India’s government has not put in any pre-orders for the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines that were first to report encouraging Phase 3 trial results. But, alongside the US, India has the largest order of... 24th November 2020 · 9 mins read
US Chart Pack Vaccine hopes set against darkening near-term outlook The continued surge in COVID-19 infections across the country is prompting a growing number of states to reimpose restrictions on activity. The softer retail sales data in October indicated that this... 19th November 2020 · 9 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Only light-touch restrictions on horizon for now Japan is in the midst of a third wave of COVID-19. Daily infections have already reached their previous early-August peak. Only the Hokkaido Government has responded with countermeasures so far... 17th November 2020 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What more can policymakers do? The recent tightening of virus containment measures across the region will push back the economic recovery well into 2021 and means that policy support will need to be stepped up before, as seems... 12th November 2020 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Vaccine could reduce size of further fiscal support The rollout of an effective vaccine in early 2021 would cause us to pull up our growth forecasts for next year, but the boost to GDP in 2022 could be much smaller if the improved near-term outlook... 10th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Long Run Focus A new era of financial repression Financial repression – defined in the current context as measures that artificially lower the cost of government borrowing – will become an increasingly used tool to cope with higher public sector... 10th November 2020 · 23 mins read
India Economics Update More evidence of a woeful fiscal response The Finance Ministry’s response to the pandemic has been even smaller than we initially thought. Announced stimulus measures were already meagre in size. It now appears that their impact has been... 2nd November 2020 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Onus remains on fiscal policy Developments this week suggest it will take a much greater deterioration of the outlook for the Bank of Canada to deliver additional monetary support, leaving the onus on Finance Minister Chrystia... 30th October 2020 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Activity rebounding, fiscal stimulus set to disappoint The September activity data showed another strong rise in industrial production and support our above-consensus GDP growth forecasts. As such, it is not too worrying that the third supplementary... 30th October 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Finance Ministry opting for tricks over treats Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s comments that GDP growth would be “near zero” this fiscal year paint an unrealistically optimistic picture of the economic outlook and, viewed more cynically, may... 30th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Update Fiscal response looks more muscular with tax deferrals We estimate that firms deferred around ¥17tn in tax and social security contributions during the state of emergency. Most of those deferrals will have to be paid back by mid-2021 but we suspect that... 29th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack On the road to recovery As restrictions have been lifted in both countries, activity has rebounded. Admittedly, the second draconian lockdown in Victoria will hold back the recovery in GDP in Australia in Q3 and Q4. But we... 29th October 2020 · 11 mins read
Global Markets Update Brazilian stocks may do well despite fiscal drama It is looking increasingly likely that the Brazilian government will violate its constitutional spending cap, or at least the spirit of it. While this could lead to some ructions in the real and... 28th October 2020 · 3 mins read
