China Economics Update Planning to do it alone The 14 th Five-Year Plan should provide a revealing view of the key challenges that China’s leadership believes it faces. High among them is a more hostile global environment. In the economic sphere... 3rd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Fiscal support not quite as large as most think The fiscal support that Japan’s government provided during the pandemic wasn’t as large as headline figures suggest. Accordingly, the withdrawal of stimulus will be a smaller headwind to the economy... 2nd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Wage growth near its trough Labour markets in both countries have tightened in recent months. In Australia, the unemployment rate has fallen from a peak of 7.1% to just 6.4% in January. And other measures of spare capacity have... 1st March 2021 · 11 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed doubles down on its new policy framework Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony to Congress – together with similarly-dovish speeches from key Board members this week – underlined the Fed’s new commitment to the full employment side of its... 26th February 2021 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update The global implications of more US fiscal stimulus If passed in full, President Biden’s $1.9tn American Rescue Plan would constitute a fiscal stimulus worth 1.4% of global GDP, coming hot off the heels of the $900bn deal struck in December. While a... 24th February 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Hong Kong sustains fiscal support Hong Kong has curtailed some of last year’s emergency spending but today’s budget signals that fiscal policy remains loose. There is room to do more, but the key determinant of the economic outlook is... 24th February 2021 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Activity returning to pre-virus levels Indian GDP data due to be released on Friday are likely to show only a small contraction in annual growth in Q4 2020, and high-frequency indicators point to a relatively strong start to 2021. Indeed... 24th February 2021 · 9 mins read
US Economics Focus How much stimulus is too much? Much of the recent discussion on whether the proposed $1.9trn fiscal stimulus, equivalent to nearly 9% of GDP, could be too big when the output gap is closer to 3%, has glossed over the fact that the... 23rd February 2021 · 15 mins read
Japan Economics Update Wider tolerance band wouldn’t signal tighter policy The Bank of Japan is likely to widen the tolerance band around its 10-year yield target next month. The last time this happened, many saw it – wrongly in our view – as a form of policy tightening. It... 23rd February 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack GDP will soon be back at pre-virus path The strong rise in output in Q4 2020 to just 1.2% below Q4 2019 levels bolsters our view that Japan’s economy will be back to the level it reached before the tax hike and close to its pre-virus path... 22nd February 2021 · 10 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s blackouts, Argentine policymaking woes The energy crisis in Texas has led to power outages across Mexico this week, particularly in the northern manufacturing heartland, which we estimate may knock about 5% off industrial production this... 19th February 2021 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Policymaker silence, festival spending, the Ox & GDP Years of the Ox aren't typically bullish for China's economy. 2021 will be different, but recent inaction by both the Finance Ministry and People’s Bank points to a withdrawal of policy support that... 19th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Another look at Brazil’s fiscal problem The discussion in Brazil around extending emergency fiscal support reinforces our view that the government will ultimately cast aside the spending cap. That could put the public debt trajectory onto... 17th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Singapore to keep fiscal taps running Singapore today unveiled a budget that will keep fiscal policy loose for the coming fiscal year (April 2021-March 2022), while also attempting to address some of the long-term challenges facing the... 16th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Long-term Global Economic Outlook COVID legacy will be higher debt, not weaker growth We do not expect the pandemic to do permanent damage to global economic growth as vaccines allow activity to resume. There will be sustained behavioural changes, but these need not be negative. Note... 12th February 2021 · 1 hr, 9 mins read
India Economics Weekly Policymakers will keep a lid on borrowing costs Indian yields rose significantly in the aftermath of the unexpectedly-accommodative Union Budget announcement but developments since - including a ramping up of open market operations - have helped to... 11th February 2021 · 5 mins read
