China Economics Weekly Acrimony in Alaska, Made in China, fiscal tightening, The acrimonious meeting in Alaska underlines that a new US administration has not led to a reset of US-China relations. China’s leadership has long appeared set on a course for industrial decoupling... 19th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s fiscal policy: the good, the bad and the ugly Nigeria’s budget deficit is set to narrow sharply this year as oil revenues increase and the government fails to meet ambitious capital spending plans. The shortfall should be easily covered by... 19th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Revisiting financial repression in EMs The recent rise in EM sovereign bond yields will, if sustained, make public debt problems in some countries even worse. Those with large local currency debts may ultimately turn to financial... 18th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Tunisia heading for a debt restructuring Tunisia’s public finances have deteriorated further during the COVID-19 crisis and, with the government unlikely to be able to push through much-needed fiscal austerity, a debt restructuring looks... 18th March 2021 · 16 mins read
Capital Daily Monetary policy, economic growth and bond yields In our view, as the pandemic eases major central banks will generally take a more cautious approach to tightening monetary policy than they did in the past. This underpins our forecast that the yields... 15th March 2021 · 6 mins read
China Economics Focus The 14th Five-Year Plan China’s new policy blueprint seeks above all to promote a large and hi-tech manufacturing sector, both as a defence against decoupling by the West and as a source of productivity gains. Policymakers... 15th March 2021 · 27 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Fiscal worries in Brazil, Argentina’s inflation dilemma Fiscal concerns are growing in Brazil as Congress approved a bill yesterday which opens the door to more fiscal support (outside the limits of the spending cap). And pressure for higher public... 12th March 2021 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s fiscal U-turn to support the recovery The Colombian government’s shift away from its austere fiscal stance will lead to higher public debt and, more likely than not, a loss of its sovereign investment grade rating. But, from an economic... 11th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Rising inflation no obstacle to continued super-loose Fed policy Although some measures of expected inflation have been creeping up recently in the US, they generally remain well below the levels that in our view might conceivably prompt the Fed to reassess its... 10th March 2021 · 7 mins read
Long Run Update Will the pandemic help “to green” economies? One silver lining of the pandemic may be to accelerate the transformation to a “green” global economy. The related investment could boost demand, and possibly potential growth, in those countries... 10th March 2021 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update The Lula ruling, Brazil’s debt problem and the BCB The annulment of left-wing former President Lula’s criminal convictions has significantly increased the likelihood of a looser fiscal stance, which could put Brazil’s public debt back onto an... 9th March 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Stimulus is big, but we won’t be revising our forecasts Although Democrats are close to securing passage of nearly all the $1.9trn originally requested by President Joe Biden in his American Rescue Plan, which is significantly more than the $1trn in... 6th March 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Big fiscal boost when economy weak, smaller drag when it’s stronger The measures announced in this week’s Budget support the economy when it is most in need and are a smaller drag once the economy is more able to deal with it. As a result, there is an upside to our... 5th March 2021 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea’s latest fiscal stimulus, Philippines inflation Korea today announced that it was stepping up its support for the economy with a new supplementary budget worth 15trn won (around 0.8% of GDP). Government spending this year is now set to be 3% higher... 5th March 2021 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update The NPC: Taking away the punch bowl The reports delivered at today’s opening of the National People’s Congress (NPC) confirm that with the COVID-19 downturn now in the rear-view mirror the focus of China’s leadership has shifted away... 5th March 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Budget 2021 – Filling the fiscal hole While most governments are focussed squarely on maintaining or increasing fiscal support for their economies, in today’s Budget the Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, adopted a different two-staged plan for the... 3rd March 2021 · 11 mins read
