UK Economics Public Finances (Apr.) April’s public finances figures showed that the government’s financial position isn’t as bad as the Office for Budget Responsibility predicted only two months ago, reinforcing our view that the tax... 25th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s policy shift, Turkey’s tight fiscal stance Guidance from Hungary's central bank this week suggests that it is taking the fight against inflation much more seriously and we now think that a monetary tightening cycle will start over the coming... 21st May 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Wage growth set to accelerate in Australia April’s labour market figures confirmed that the withdrawal of the JobKeeper wage subsidy wasn’t as big a shock as many had feared. The continued tightening of the labour market should eventually... 21st May 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB laying seeds of policy normalisation Policymakers in South Africa kept their benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50% today, while laying the foundations for normalising monetary policy. We think that rate hikes are some time off as the Reserve... 20th May 2021 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Over the worst? New virus cases in India remain extremely high, but some solace can be taken from the fact that they have dropped rapidly over the past couple of weeks back to their level in mid-April. The share of... 20th May 2021 · 9 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Near-term inflation pressures mount Near-term inflationary pressures appear to be building. Some of this reflects factors that are likely to be only temporary, such as the “reopening inflation” associated with the easing of virus... 17th May 2021 · 15 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Assessing the macro implications of the “Polish Deal” The “Polish Deal” outlined by the ruling Law and Justice party over the weekend strengthens the shift in policy since 2015 towards higher social welfare spending and support for families. Fiscal... 17th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi: fiscal purse strings kept tight, for now Saudi Arabia’s budget deficit narrowed in the first quarter of the year on the back of higher non-oil revenues and a sharp reduction in capital spending. Higher oil revenues will support a further... 11th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Budget signals permanently larger public spending Treasurer Josh Frydenberg revealed in today’s Budget that the government will spend nearly all of the windfall accruing from the stronger economic recovery. That will result in a permanently larger... 11th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Assessing the fallout from Colombia’s fiscal drama Recent protests have pushed Colombia’s government away from the fiscal reforms that are needed to reduce the public debt ratio in the coming years. It’s therefore likely that the sovereign will lose... 10th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Budget to extend tax relief While the government is likely to announce further tax relief at next week’s Budget, we suspect it will use nearly half of the recent improvement in the budget balance to reduce borrowing. 5th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Economic recovery facilitates house price surge House prices are now surging in both countries. House price cycles in the Australian housing market tend to lag those in New Zealand a little, which is consistent with the forward indicators pointing... 29th April 2021 · 11 mins read
US Economics Update Biden plan points to limited further fiscal expansion The $1.8trn in spending and tax credits in the American Families Plan would provide a relatively small boost to GDP growth as, like the earlier infrastructure proposals, it would be mostly paid for... 28th April 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economic Outlook Rebound levelling off After treading water in Q1, activity should pick up again this quarter following the relaxation of domestic travel restrictions. But growth will be more modest than most expect over the next couple of... 28th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Diverging policy responses to rising inflation Inflation is above target in Brazil and Mexico, with Chile set to follow in the coming months, but only in the former is the central bank likely to respond with (further) interest rate hikes. Brazil’s... 27th April 2021 · 11 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf leads the way in unbalanced recovery A strong vaccine rollout in the Gulf, particularly in the UAE and Bahrain, and Morocco should mean that containment measures are eased soon, paving the way for sustained economic recoveries. But the... 27th April 2021 · 25 mins read