UK Economics Update What taxes could the Chancellor raise to save her fiscal rule? We originally published an Update ahead of the general election on 4th July on what taxes the next government could raise. In light of the recent rise in gilt yields putting the Chancellor on course... 9th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Event US Drop-In: Inauguration Day special – Knowns and unknowns around Trump’s second term 1737471600 As the president-elect again prepares to take office, our US team held a special briefing to walk clients through what to expect in the opening phase of the second Trump admin
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) We are resending this publication because the heading of the previous version contained an error. With real household incomes set to fall again this year, the rebound in consumer spending will start... 9th January 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What does 2025 hold in store for Brazil’s economy? Brazil’s recent period of rapid growth is likely to come an end this year. Sovereign debt concerns will almost certainly rumble on, but further piecemeal austerity measures will probably prevent... 8th January 2025 · 6 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: Could the gilt market upend Rachel Reeves’ fiscal plans? 1736348400 Rachel Reeves’ room for manoeuvre is rapidly shrinking as long-end gilt yields rise.
UK Economics Update Chancellor within a whisker of breaking her fiscal rule There is a significant chance that the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) will judge that the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, is on course to miss her main fiscal rule when it revises its forecasts on... 7th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM sovereign debt risks: not just a Brazil problem Brazil’s public finances have been in the headlines for all the wrong reasons over the past month. But while an extreme case, the combination of a large budget deficit and limited political will to... 7th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update What next after Trudeau steps down? Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation as Prime Minister and Liberal Party Leader sets off a contest for who will lead the party into the election due by October, but which could happen much... 6th January 2025 · 4 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Dec. 2024) The latest FOMC meeting suggests the Fed already has its eye on President-elect Donald Trump’s inflationary policy changes. We have therefore revised up our forecast for the terminal fed funds target... 23rd December 2024 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Policy uncertainty clouds the outlook for 2025 Earlier this week we published our US Outlook. We expect the incoming Trump administration’s policies to have a mildly stagflationary impact on the economy. Assuming that Trump introduces tariffs and... 20th December 2024 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Trudeau Jr.’s turn for a “walk in the snow” Forty years on from his father famously resigning as Prime Minister following a solo walk through an Ottawa snowstorm, reports suggest Justin Trudeau is mulling the same decision after a tumultuous... 20th December 2024 · 6 mins read
