Emerging Europe Economics Update

Russia’s election: social redistribution in focus

A victory for United Russia in the Duma elections this week will strengthen the government’s recent focus on state intervention in the economy. Social redistribution has become a key priority for the...

15th September 2021 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Brazil’s political crisis, Mexico’s austere budget

It’s been a rollercoaster week in Brazilian politics and financial markets and, while investors have breathed a small sigh of relief in the past day or so, we think that they will be put under further...

10th September 2021 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Poland-EU dispute, Russia’s fiscal plans, Turkish inflation

The Poland-EU dispute over the rule of law reached a breaking point this week and raises the threat of potential fines and a significant delay to receiving EU recovery funds, dimming an otherwise...

10th September 2021 · 7 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Conservative victory won’t be a game-changer

The costed election platform released by the Conservatives this week suggests that, if they were to form a government after this month’s election, they would run a similar fiscal policy to the Liberal...

9th September 2021 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Focus

The economics of Scottish independence look more difficult

The interactions between Brexit, the deterioration in Scotland’s fiscal situation and the continued lack of an easy option for the currency have made the economics of Scottish independence even more...

7th September 2021 · 28 mins read

UK Economics

Government leaves itself with some fiscal ammo to utilise later

The net effect of today’s announcements on social care reform may provide a very small boost to GDP. But perhaps more important is that by funding more spending on social care by raising taxes, the...

7th September 2021 · 3 mins read

Europe Chart Pack

Rise in inflation is not over

Headline inflation came in higher than our above-consensus forecast in August and, at 3.0%, reached its highest level for a decade. It is likely to rise a bit further in the coming months: producer...

6th September 2021 · 11 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Brazil’s drought adds to inflation and fiscal risks

Brazil’s drought is getting worse and the impact on hydropower production and electricity tariffs will result in higher inflation than we’d previously thought. Fiscal risks could also intensify if the...

1st September 2021 · 3 mins read

China Chart Pack

Party soon to target property and healthcare costs

A WeChat post by a prominent blogger voicing support for Xi Jinping’s “common prosperity” campaign has been widely re-published by state media, giving it a rare seal of Party approval. The post argues...

31st August 2021 · 13 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack

Delta not clipping the wings of RBNZ hawks yet

New Zealand has entered a draconian lockdown and new infections continue to rise. The lockdown prompted the RBNZ to refrain from hiking interest rates at its August meeting and financial markets were...

26th August 2021 · 11 mins read

India Chart Pack

Capital outflows would be no major macro concern

Foreign portfolio outflows from Indian financial markets have been easing this month, bucking the broader EM trend. This may have been driven in part by the improvement in the virus situation. Looking...

25th August 2021 · 9 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

More fiscal worries in Brazil, the regional re-opening

Worries about a worsening of Brazil’s fiscal position in the run-up to next year’s general elections have continued to build, and we think there may now be a fiscal risk premium of about 50bp embedded...

20th August 2021 · 5 mins read

Japan Chart Pack

Strong Q4 still on the cards

With daily cases surging to unprecedented levels and states of emergency extended to mid-September this week, there may not seem to be much light at the end of the tunnel for Japan’s economy. However...

20th August 2021 · 10 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Romania’s fiscal risks, Israel’s 4th wave, CBRT pressure

Romania's new finance minister has a tough job ahead to keep the public finances on a sustainable path, especially as the PM is seeking to raise spending. Elsewhere, Israel's fourth virus wave has...

20th August 2021 · 7 mins read

UK Economics

Retail Sales & Public Finances (Jul.)

While there was good news on public borrowing, the slump in retail sales added to other evidence indicating that in July the economic recovery slowed to a crawl.

20th August 2021 · 3 mins read