China Chart Pack Power shortages another blow to global supply chains We still don’t have enough data to judge the extent of the disruption to China’s factory output from power rationing with much certainty. But with supply chains already stretched, even a modest hit to... 30th September 2021 · 13 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Debt restructuring talks inching forward The threat of messy outcomes to Sub-Saharan Africa’s debt problems seems to have diminished recently. In Zambia, the new administration vowed to tackle debt problems and press on with restructuring... 30th September 2021 · 13 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Early signs of second-round effects from soaring prices The RBA expects headline inflation to drop back from 3.8% in Q2 to 1.5% by mid-2022. By contrast, we now only expect it to fall to 2.5% over this period, reflecting the pass-through from soaring coal... 30th September 2021 · 11 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Asian central banks in little rush to raise rates Over the past month or so, the central banks of Korea, Pakistan and Sri Lanka have all raised interest rates, but we don’t think other countries will be in any rush to follow suit. There is certainly... 29th September 2021 · 15 mins read
Japan Economics Update What does Kishida’s victory mean for Japan? Incoming PM Kishida has provided mixed signals on fiscal policy, pledging a large near-term stimulus while retaining ambitious medium-term consolidation plans. Given that he blamed deregulation for... 29th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Rise in inflation to prove short-lived Inflation in many economies in the region has risen to multi-year highs in recent months. In general, this has been driven higher by a combination of unfavourable base effects from the pandemic, as... 28th September 2021 · 14 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ghana’s debt problem: muddling through Ghana’s government is likely to slip behind on its fiscal consolidation plans in the coming years and the public debt-to-GDP ratio will probably continue to rise. While we think that the authorities... 27th September 2021 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Debt ceiling crisis can still be avoided We still expect Congress to avoid a partial government shutdown at the start of next month and to raise the debt ceiling before a full-blown crisis develops in late October. But the negotiations over... 27th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Long Run Update Are we on the way to a bigger state? While it may take years or decades before the evidence is clear, there are tentative signs that the pandemic has accelerated a shift towards a bigger role for the state in advanced economies. 24th September 2021 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Global index inclusion would marginally boost bonds Speculation is building that India will be included in major global bond indices over the next year or so. If that happens, it would highlight the local bond market’s growing maturity and be cast as a... 22nd September 2021 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Update Modest policy loosening to follow election There has been almost no change in the distribution of seats in Parliament following the election, but it seems likely that the minority Liberal government will press on with a modest loosening of... 21st September 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Next PM will benefit from vaccine booster The race to become the new LDP leader – and with it PM – formally began on Friday. With Delta cases plunging and the vaccination rate having caught up with many other advanced economies, whoever wins... 20th September 2021 · 11 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly ‘BIG’ push in SA, FX distortions in Nigeria, tourism woes Momentum behind proposals for a basic income grant (BIG) in South Africa appear to be building, suggesting that the authorities are leaning towards providing more fiscal support. Elsewhere, Nigeria’s... 17th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Post-election negotiations could lead to looser policy Whether the Liberals or Conservatives triumph on Monday, it seems likely that they will hold fewer seats than the current minority Liberal government. With the balance of power shifting toward the... 17th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon finally gets a government, Saudi education plans The news that Lebanon finally formed a new government this week came as welcome relief amid the country’s economic, political and humanitarian crises. But there are still plenty of big hurdles to... 16th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Can Sri Lanka avoid default? Falling foreign exchange reserves, a declining currency and a high level of foreign currency debt mean the risk of a sovereign default in Sri Lanka is growing. While the country should be able to... 16th September 2021 · 5 mins read
