Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM tightening cycles have further to run Inflation in the emerging world has generally surprised to the upside in recent months. But while inflation in most parts of Asia remains at levels which central banks are comfortable with, it has... 19th November 2021 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Public Finances (Oct.) The winding down of the furlough scheme helped to bring down public sector net borrowing in October. But we doubt that the public finances will get much help from faster GDP growth in the near term. 19th November 2021 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack Fed’s inflation dilemma isn’t going away Whether Jerome Powell or Lael Brainard is given the nod over the coming days, the next 12-18 months are shaping up to be an unusually challenging period for the Fed Chair. The October data showed a... 18th November 2021 · 8 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Automobile sector set for swift rebound While October’s trade data showed good exports still depressed by the recent collapse in domestic car production, there is growing anecdotal evidence that the auto sector is on the cusp of a rapid... 18th November 2021 · 10 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Tunisia fiscal policy, Egypt’s private sector, COVID-19 Tunisia’s government upwardly revised its 2021 budget deficit target this week which, coupled with growing signs of it making concessions to appease the UGTT labour union, adds to our view that the... 18th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update A fresh look at fiscal positions in Latin America Fiscal balances have generally improved across Latin America this year (barring Chile and Colombia) but we think that governments in most major economies will struggle to implement the substantial... 17th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Higher rates quickly adding to Brazil’s fiscal challenge By next year, Brazil’s public sector interest payments could be almost twice as large (at ~8% of GDP) as they were in 2020, making the challenge of stabilising the public debt-to-GDP ratio all the... 15th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack More signs that the recovery is hitting the buffers Recent indicators confirm that the global recovery has continued, but also that it has entered a slower and more difficult phase. US GDP growth slowed sharply in Q3, and our China Activity Proxy... 11th November 2021 · 13 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fiscal policy in Israel set to lose its punch The phasing out of crisis support and strength of tax revenues have boosted Israel’s public finances and the conservative stance of last week’s budget will help to narrow the deficit towards 3% of GDP... 11th November 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Inflation on the launchpad We’ve been warning for a while that CPI inflation would rise further than most people expect and have recently pushed our own forecast even higher. We now think CPI inflation will rise from 3.1% in... 10th November 2021 · 9 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Recovery slowed by supply chain problems Economic growth has slowed sharply as output approaches its pre-pandemic level. We think that GDP will probably increase by only around 0.5% q/q in the final quarter, down from 2.2% in Q3... 8th November 2021 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Israel passed a budget, hawks in flight, Turkey déjà vu The Israeli budgets for 2021 and 2022 passed this week – the first approved budgets in three years – don’t make a big difference to the direction of fiscal policy, but contain key reforms that may... 5th November 2021 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly RBI liquidity measures, fuel tax cuts Recent measures by the RBI to further drain banking sector liquidity have led some to think that a hike in the reverse repo rate is imminent. But we disagree and think that liquidity-withdrawal... 5th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly PM Kishida’s plans to raise wages sound familiar PM Kishida’s plans to lift wage growth largely follow the Abenomics blueprint of tax incentives, targeted pay hikes in sectors facing severe labour shortages and rapid minimum wage hikes. A tax on... 5th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt inflation, Saudi budget, Bahrain’s fiscal plan Rising wheat and gas prices have added to concerns about inflation in Egypt, raising the risk that the central bank fails to deliver the interest rate cuts that we currently anticipate next year... 4th November 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fiscal risks loom largest in Lat Am & S. Africa Among the major EMs, long-term fiscal problems look most challenging in South Africa and several large Latin American economies. And rising interest rates will make the fiscal squeeze needed to... 3rd November 2021 · 3 mins read
