US Chart Pack Winter virus wave to slow economic momentum The Omicron variant has supercharged the seasonal wave of virus cases sweeping parts of the US, adding to the existing headwinds to consumption growth over the coming months. In contrast to... 21st December 2021 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update First thoughts on Turkey’s FX-indexed deposit scheme A new scheme announced by Turkey’s President Erdogan last night, which compensates holders of lira deposits for exchange rates losses, has triggered a sharp rally in the lira and will help to mitigate... 21st December 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Public Finances (Nov.) The rise in government borrowing in November suggests the public finances could be already starting to feel the strain from higher spending on NHS Test & Trace and booster vaccines. Now that tighter... 21st December 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Omicron? Central banks focusing firmly on inflation Inflation pressures have shown no signs of letting up across Emerging Europe, with headline inflation rates surging to multi-year highs in November. Producer price inflation has hit rates not seen in... 20th December 2021 · 15 mins read
India Chart Pack Inflation risks stacked on the upside in 2022 Upside inflation risks are building in India. Damage to crops from bad weather has caused spikes in vegetable prices recently. And base effects aren’t helpful: food inflation will accelerate in year... 20th December 2021 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly 2021 in review For the last Weekly of the year we look back at some our key 2021 forecasts. Our biggest wins were predicting that Brazil’s government would effectively cast aside its spending cap and that Colombia... 17th December 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly What we got right and wrong in 2021 and two big risks for 2022 A look at our forecasts for 2021 reveals more hits than misses. While the consensus thought GDP would grow by 5.4% in 2021, we forecast that it would rise by 7.5%. We don't yet have data for Q4, but... 17th December 2021 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi budget, Fed and the Gulf, Tunisian politics Saudi Arabia’s 2022 Budget revealed that the government plans to cut spending in order to run a budget surplus for the first time since 2013. But the true fiscal stance is being muddied by an... 16th December 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Emerging virus waves clouding recoveries beyond SA Much attention has been devoted to the Omicron-fuelled fourth COVID-19 wave ripping through South Africa but cases have picked up elsewhere in Sub-Saharan Africa as well, with especially sharp rises... 16th December 2021 · 12 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Government yet to deliver pre-election spending boost The government unveiled only modest increases in spending in today’s fiscal update. And while the unemployment rate has now reached levels where the Treasurer has pledged to start repairing the public... 16th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf governments to keep fiscal policy tight Governments across the Gulf have begun to unveil their 2022 budgets and tight fiscal policy remains the order of the day. Saudi Arabia outlined a 6% cut in spending next year that is expected to push... 15th December 2021 · 14 mins read
Canada Economics Update Government fails to deliver on election pledges The government’s fall fiscal update suggests the public finances will be in a better position in the coming years than we had assumed, but this is largely because the government chose not to deliver... 14th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Shortages to maintain upward pressure on inflation Outside China, global inflation jumped from 5.0% to 5.5% in October, its highest level since 2008. And timely data point to a further rise in November. Base effects, fading ‘re-opening’ inflation, and... 14th December 2021 · 14 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Omicron not yet swaying EM central banks The latest EM central bank meetings confirmed that policymakers in Emerging Europe and Latin America are still focused on high and rising inflation, rather than any downside risk to the economic... 10th December 2021 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Federal fiscal resilience masks state weakness Treasurer Josh Frydenberg will gloat when he unveils in the upcoming Mid-Year Fiscal and Economic Outlook that the federal deficit will be smaller in 2021/22 than expected despite the recent Delta... 10th December 2021 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Iran-JCPOA, Qatar’s budget, UAE working week shift The seventh round of talks to revive the Iran nuclear deal resumed today, having halted last week, and it appears as though reaching an agreement is some way off. This could put upwards pressure on... 9th December 2021 · 7 mins read
