India Economics Weekly Omicron surging, asset sales progressing COVID-19 cases in India are still surging. But the early indications are that healthcare systems are not under significant pressure, and we’re hopeful that India’s third wave will peak before long... 14th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil and Gulf fiscal policy, Egypt joins GBI-EM, Tunisia We think that the recent rally in oil prices is likely to be short lived and, as prices fall back, the window for governments in the Gulf to loosen fiscal policy will shut. Elsewhere, Egypt’s... 13th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What to expect in MENA in 2022 We think that GDP growth in the Gulf will be stronger than most expect this year on the back of rising oil output. Elsewhere, we expect a larger depreciation of the Egyptian pound than most anticipate... 12th January 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Inflation won’t be the fiscal boon many assume While the general perception is that higher inflation is unambiguously good for the public finances, the reality is a bit more nuanced. The Chancellor will almost certainly be gifted with a lower... 12th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook BoJ still facing no inflation pressure The Omicron surge will cause a renewed fall in consumer spending this quarter. But we still expect GDP to return to its pre-virus path in the second half of the year. And while Omicron and any... 12th January 2022 · 22 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Inflation to remain above target in 2022 Euro-zone inflation reached 5.0% in December, which is likely to be the peak. Unless oil and gas prices surge again in 2022, which seems unlikely, energy inflation will plummet – we forecast the... 11th January 2022 · 12 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Our key calls for 2022 We think that GDP growth in Australia will surprise to the upside. But with wage growth only approaching the 3% watermark the RBA would like to see by year-end, we expect the Bank to keep rates on... 11th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA experience offering Omicron hope? Nigeria’s budget Evidence is growing that South Africa’s Omicron-driven virus outbreak has been brief and not as economically damaging as previous waves. This is a promising omen for other economies in Sub-Saharan... 7th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ meeting, Gulf tightens restrictions, Egypt budget This week’s OPEC+ meeting turned into a fairly straightforward affair with the group raising output as planned, but if we’re right in expecting oil prices to drop back, the window for governments in... 6th January 2022 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update Key calls for 2022 As long as recurrent large waves of COVID are avoided, we think that Indian GDP growth will accelerate this year. At the same time, inflation is likely to rise more sharply than generally expected... 5th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Restrictions to weigh on first-quarter GDP growth The economy gained momentum at the start of the fourth quarter and we have revised up our forecast for fourth-quarter GDP growth to 5.5% annualised, from 4.0%. Given the rapidly deteriorating... 23rd December 2021 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Omicron won’t hold back consumption for long The Omicron has lifted new virus cases to a record high, though hospitalisations remain low. We estimate that there are around 2000 hospital beds available for Covid-19 patients in New South Wales... 23rd December 2021 · 11 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Omicron may hinder already weakening recoveries Recoveries across Latin America have lost momentum in Q4 even though, unlike in other regions such as Europe, new COVID-19 cases generally remain low and containment measures are still light-touch at... 22nd December 2021 · 14 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Manufacturing rebound should continue into 2022 Q4 is shaping up to be strong in line with our forecast. Mobility data point to another sizeable rebound in consumer spending, and strong export data and optimistic firm forecasts suggest that... 22nd December 2021 · 10 mins read
Asia Chart Pack What Omicron means for monetary policy in Asia Most countries in Emerging Asia have now recorded cases of Omicron, and the experience from elsewhere in the world suggests that it is only a matter of time before there is widespread community... 22nd December 2021 · 14 mins read
China Chart Pack The People’s Bank is not pleased The People’s Bank purchased nearly $6bn in foreign exchange last month, by our estimate. That’s not much in the context of China’s cross-border trade and investment flows. But it was the biggest... 22nd December 2021 · 12 mins read
