Africa Economics Update SA: GNU has tough task to realise economic potential Six months since its formation, South Africa’s Government of National Unity (GNU) has fostered a lot of goodwill in the market. Loadshedding is seemingly a thing of the past, logistics constraints... 16th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Ceasefire in Gaza, Egypt’s fiscal future The provisional ceasefire deal in Gaza, subject to final approval from both sides (which Israel's PM Netanyahu has called into question today), could mark a major de-escalatory step. For the... 16th January 2025 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Jan. '25) Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has b een updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth in the Middle East and North Africa will accelerate in 2025 on the... 15th January 2025 · 0 mins read
Event Drop-In: Can India’s policymakers bring the good times back? 1738054800 For so long the darling of global investors, India’s economy and financial markets have hit a sticky patch of late.
Emerging Europe Economics Update A guide to upcoming elections across CEE A flurry of elections are due across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) over the next year or so, which will provide a gauge of support for Ukraine and, in some cases, will shape countries’ future... 15th January 2025 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update Debt swap a band-aid for China’s fiscal challenges The debt swap that kicked off in November and extends to 2028 reduces the risk of near-term defaults by local government financing vehicles, which would be destabilising for financial markets. But it... 15th January 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update FX bond issuance ramps up, but the outlook is cloudy EM sovereign FX debt issuance surged over the past year and at the start of 2025, albeit with many sovereigns returning to global markets and issuing at high interest rates. Borrowing does not look... 14th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s budget blowout: how big a risk? Poland’s public debt dynamics are more favourable than many of its peers. But the sharp widening of the budget deficit, coupled with the decision to leave austerity measures until next year and beyond... 14th January 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update What could policymakers do in response to higher gilt yields? Our base case is that a stabilisation and eventual fall back in gilt yields will allow the government to muddle through and wait until the next fiscal event on 26th March before making any decisions... 14th January 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Debt ceiling drama begins to brew Raising the federal debt ceiling this year will likely come as part of a budget reconciliation package alongside concessionary spending cuts given the razor-thin Republican majority in the House. As... 13th January 2025 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Brazilian real bottoming out, but fiscal risks persist The Brazilian real plunged in 2024, due to fiscal risks. While we suspect that further piecemeal austerity measures will prevent another leg down in the currency, with investors’ fiscal fears unlikely... 13th January 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) While the economy lost all momentum at the end of last year, we still expect GDP growth to accelerate from 0.8% in 2024 to an above-consensus 1.3% in 2025. Admittedly, activity could be restrained if... 13th January 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update CDU Agenda 2030 won’t turn Germany around The CDU’s economic policy agenda, released today, clearly recognises the scale of Germany’s economic challenges and proposes some sensible policies to address them. But some of the measures are not... 10th January 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Gilt market is not in crisis, but it does cause problems This week’s leap in gilt yields creates more problems for the Chancellor and is an extra headwind for the economy. But it is not a crisis and the cause mostly originates overseas rather than being... 10th January 2025 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Update Gilt market and fiscal policy: your questions answered With long-dated gilt yields hitting multi-decade highs, we held an online Drop-In session on Wednesday to discuss the outlook for the gilt market and the implications for government policy and the UK... 9th January 2025 · 9 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi debt issuance, Egypt-IMF, Lebanon’s new president Saudi Arabia kicked off the year with bumper international debt issuance and, with foreign investment remaining weak and budget deficits likely to persist, the government’s reliance on capital markets... 9th January 2025 · 7 mins read
