Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria sticking with subsidies, dovish rate decisions The announcement by the Nigerian authorities to maintain fuel subsidies – rather than end the scheme as planned – reduces inflation risks, but the budget deficit is set to come in wider than... 28th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Global monetary tightening a challenge for MENA Central banks in the Gulf will have to raise interest rates in line with the Fed (which we expect to hike four times both this year and next) by virtue of their dollar pegs, adding to headwinds facing... 28th January 2022 · 11 mins read
UK Economics Weekly More space to scrap NIC hike than most think With the beleaguered Prime Minister looking to win back support from his Tory MPs, one option reportedly being considered is postponing or scrapping the planned national insurance tax hike. On our... 28th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Long Run Update Ageing a bigger threat than pandemic to public debt We expect governments in advanced economies to take action to prevent public sector debt ratios from spiralling out of control as their populations age. However, this is uncertain, and the risk is... 28th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook A slower recovery in 2022 Growth across much of the emerging world will be weaker this year than last, with Emerging Europe and China in particular likely to fall short of consensus expectations. The EM monetary tightening... 28th January 2022 · 28 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Region to lag behind as debt risks mount Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic recovery from the pandemic is likely to remain one of the weakest of any region over 2022-23 and our GDP growth forecasts are generally below the consensus. The latest... 28th January 2022 · 23 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Inflationary surge prompting monetary tightening New Zealand’s inflation surged to a 30-year high of 5.9% in Q4. And while Australia’s 3.5% was much lower, it is well above the RBA’s 2-3% target band. Trimmed mean inflation is about one percentage... 28th January 2022 · 11 mins read
China Economics Weekly Too much of a good thing? The R&D intensity of China’s economy continued to rise last year and is converging toward the levels of advanced economies. But that’s not necessarily a good thing for a country with much lower... 28th January 2022 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly What to expect from the Union Budget For watchers of India’s economy, next week is one of the most significant of the year as Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman delivers the Union Budget for FY22/23 on Tuesday. Unusually, the fiscal... 28th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Industry shifts into gear amid signs of easing shortages Industry across Emerging Europe turned a corner in Q4 as auto production rebounded strongly. This comes amid signs that supply shortages are starting to ease; our proprietary shortages dashboard... 27th January 2022 · 12 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt privatisation, Russia-Ukraine, Oman subsidies Further reports that Egypt’s government is stepping up the pace of structural reforms are promising for the country’s longer-term growth prospects. For the Gulf economies, Russia-Ukraine tensions... 27th January 2022 · 7 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Rising virus numbers unlikely to derail recovery The Omicron variant is spreading quickly across Asia. Daily virus numbers are now at record levels in Korea, Singapore and the Philippines. However, the economic impact of Omicron is shaping up to be... 27th January 2022 · 15 mins read
India Chart Pack Activity holds up as Omicron peaks The rapid spread of the Omicron variant in India has caused economic activity to weaken so far in 2022. But the damage has been much less severe than during the previous two outbreaks. Perhaps... 27th January 2022 · 9 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Rate hikes showing on all policy radars The re-tightening of restrictions has overshadowed the start of the year in Switzerland and the Nordics, and our GDP growth forecasts for 2022 are about 0.5%-pts lower than the consensus. Nonetheless... 26th January 2022 · 12 mins read
China Economic Outlook Cyclical trough, tepid rebound China will be buffeted in the first half of 2022 by COVID outbreaks and a further slowdown in property construction. Policy support should improve the picture later in the year, but mounting... 26th January 2022 · 23 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Some good news on the political front Political risk will be a major theme once again in Latin America this year, although recent developments have given cause for cautious optimism. Chilean President-elect Boric’s appointment of Mario... 25th January 2022 · 11 mins read
