Capital Daily The UK’s fiscal gamble will keep Gilt yields high We think 10-year gilt yields will remain high following Friday’s fiscal statement from the UK Government. 23rd September 2022 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Ghana’s economic woes, perpetual power cuts in SA Despite the release of better-than-expected Q2 GDP growth figures in Ghana, the economic outlook remains gloomy as policy tightening to address the country’s debt woes will increasingly bite. And in... 23rd September 2022 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Kwarteng causes carnage The surge in gilt yields and the fall in the pound after the Chancellor announced his hefty tax cuts suggests that the markets have concluded the policies will lead to higher interest rates and more... 23rd September 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update Chancellor gambles everything on growth The Chancellor claimed that this was a plan for growth. But unless the Chancellor’s gamble pays off and the government’s fiscal policy boosts GDP growth by 0.5-1.0ppts per annum, the risk is that once... 23rd September 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Fiscal risks loom largest in Brazil and Colombia The improvement in government budget positions across Latin America over the past year or so has been driven in large part by temporary factors and is likely to reverse before long. As things stand... 22nd September 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Chancellor set to gamble on growth A key prong to the new PM’s economic policy is to increase the size of the economic pie, rather than redistributing it, seemingly funded by higher public borrowing. If the new government’s gamble on... 21st September 2022 · 5 mins read
India Chart Pack RBI’s CBDC may struggle for relevance The RBI this month asked four public-sector banks to trial its central bank digital currency (CBDC) before year-end, keeping to the timeline that it set out when plans were first announced in the FY22... 21st September 2022 · 9 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Aug.) The public finances figures brought some cheer for the new Chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, ahead of his fiscal statement on Friday. That said, the government’s huge fiscal expansion and the weakening... 21st September 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA recapitalisation not off the table yet Despite incurring a record loss last year and now having to operate with negative equity, the RBA has not requested a recapitalisation from the government. But given that it did receive a capital... 21st September 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombia’s fuel subsidies, Brazil’s presidential race The commitment of Colombia’s new administration to address costly energy subsidies is the fiscally responsible thing to do, but it will come at the expense of exacerbating the country’s inflation... 16th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria oil output, Kenya subsidies, Zambia debt The fall in Nigeria’s oil production in August to a 50-year low, coming alongside the recent drop back in oil prices, reinforces our downbeat view on the economy’s prospects. Elsewhere, Kenya’s... 16th September 2022 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: weak growth & lower oil prices pose fiscal risk Mexico’s 2023 budget proposal suggests that officials intend to stick to their tight policy stance, but the public finances are likely to deteriorate if (as we expect) oil prices fall back and the... 15th September 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Our new interest rate forecast – a peak of 4.00% After fully adjusting our economic forecasts to take account of what is shaping up to be a big fiscal expansion, we now think the Bank of England will raise interest rates from 1.75% currently to a... 15th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Energy crisis support won’t avert recessions across CEE Fiscal support to protect households and businesses from sky-high energy prices generally amounts to around 2-3% of GDP across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). This will cushion, rather than fully... 14th September 2022 · 4 mins read
