Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia default, Hungary budget plans, dovish CNB? A Russian sovereign default moved a step closer this week, although in practice it’s unlikely to have a major impact on the economy. In the meantime, high oil and gas revenues have given the... 27th May 2022 · 8 mins read
UK Economics What the Chancellor gives, the BoE will have to take away The new fiscal stimulus announced by the Chancellor this week puts more pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates into restrictive territory. As result of this and other recent... 27th May 2022 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack Shifting policy mix The RBI kicked off its tightening cycle this month with a 40bp hike to the repo rate (to 4.40%) in an unscheduled policy announcement. The minutes to that meeting show that several MPC members are... 27th May 2022 · 9 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Corporate tax shakeup, Shanghai parts shortages The government aims to lift the standard corporate tax rate while providing more generous tax breaks for capital spending. We doubt this will have a noticeable impact on business investment, not least... 27th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Core inflation still rising With core CPI inflation still rising, the Bank of Canada has no choice but to continue hiking its policy rate “forcefully’ back toward neutral. All three of the core measures tracked by the Bank are... 26th May 2022 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Chancellor supports household incomes, but boosts inflation The extra financial support for households announced by the Chancellor today will help millions of households cope better with the cost of living crisis. But it won’t relieve all the pain and may mean... 26th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi fiscal policy, the IMF in Tunisia and Egypt Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan provided hints in comments this week that the fiscal purse strings could soon be loosened if oil prices remain elevated. Elsewhere, officials in... 26th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Colombia election: judging the opportunities and risks Colombia’s upcoming presidential election could result in the country’s first left-wing government in recent decades, headed by Gustavo Petro. While he is unlikely to be as radical as many expect... 26th May 2022 · 17 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Monetary tightening stepped up A majority of central banks in the region hiked interest rates over the past month. In the Gulf, central banks raised interest rates in line with the Federal Reserve, although this won’t necessarily... 26th May 2022 · 14 mins read
UK Economics Public Finances (Apr.) The economic wind that has recently been blowing the public finances to undershoot forecasts adds more pressure on the Chancellor to launch in the coming weeks a big package of measures to help... 24th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q&A on Russia’s budget, deficit financing & default In this Update, we answer a number of key questions on Russia’s public finances, including the likelihood of a sovereign default, the impact of higher energy prices and the collapse of the economy on... 23rd May 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Asia joins the EM rate hike club Upside surprises to inflation coupled with a hawkish Fed have prompted aggressive monetary policy responses by central banks across the emerging world over the past month. Policymakers in Czechia... 23rd May 2022 · 9 mins read
India Economics Update A small helping hand for households Measures unveiled by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman over the weekend including a cut to excise duties on petrol and ramping up of fertiliser subsidies should offer a small reprieve to households... 23rd May 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Tweak to Yield Curve Control still on the table The Bank of Japan’s attempt to relieve pressure on the Yield Curve Control framework by offering to buy an unlimited amount of 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs) at yields of 0.25% for as long... 23rd May 2022 · 10 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chile’s new constitution, Brazil’s improving finances Some of the doubts over Chile’s political system have eased after the Constitutional Convention completed a draft of the new charter, but political risks remain high for now, which may keep the peso... 20th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Budget boost will exacerbate inflationary pressures While the government’s Budget was focused on equipping households to withstand surging living costs, by adding to demand we think it will cause inflation to be higher over the next year. That’s all... 20th May 2022 · 3 mins read
