UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Chancellor won’t “kickstart” growth, but LT outlook rosy While we doubt the Chancellor’s plans to “kickstart economic growth” will lift the economy out of its recent malaise in the coming quarters, at the margin her strategy of growing the supply side of... 31st January 2025 · 4 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Jan. 25) Our China Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economy should accelerate over the near-term, driven by consumption-boosting policy support. But... 31st January 2025 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Can policymakers bring back the good times? We doubt that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will deliver a big stimulus package to get the economy out of its recent soft patch in tomorrow's Union Budget announcement. That will leave the onus... 31st January 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: OPEC+ and Trump, Egypt’s debt issuance President Trump’s call for OPEC+ to “bring down the cost of oil” is unlikely to change the outcome of group’s meeting on Monday; it is likely to stick to plans to gradually raise oil output from April... 30th January 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Jan. 2025) Financial vulnerabilities remained near multi-year lows across EMs at the end of last year, driven by a further decline in currency crisis risk. The overall picture remains one of EM resilience and... 29th January 2025 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (January 2025) After a stellar run, India’s economy has entered a softer patch that will continue for a few more quarters. We think that will portend an underperformance in local equities relative to other major... 22nd January 2025 · 1 min read
India Economics Update What to expect from India’s FY25/26 Union Budget Hopes that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will deliver a big fiscal package to get the economy out of its recent soft patch in the upcoming Union Budget are likely to be disappointed. Some more... 22nd January 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Dec. 2024) Against a backdrop of slowing GDP growth and high interest rates, December’s overshoot in borrowing is further disappointing news for the Chancellor. That said, most of the overshoot was because of a... 22nd January 2025 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) The economy continues to do well with GDP growing strongly, employment growth solid and core inflation pressures easing again. We are concerned, however, that the Trump administration’s policies will... 21st January 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus French public debt: trouble brewing Developments over the past year have put France’s public debt on a steeper upward path, with the debt ratio now likely to rise from 113% of GDP last year to around 126% by 2030. We see little chance... 21st January 2025 · 14 mins read
Japan Economics Update Higher bond yields not a threat to fiscal health yet We aren’t overly worried about the impact of higher bond yields on Japan’s public finances because rising interest rates are a direct consequence of higher inflation. With the effective interest rate... 21st January 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How worrying is Saudi Arabia’s public debt trajectory? Saudi Arabia’s government has been the largest EM issuer of hard currency debt over the past few years and this Update considers what will happen to the Kingdom’s public debt burden under different... 20th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Israel-Hamas Ceasefire, CEE Forum The ceasefire deal agreed between Israel and Hamas this week will, if it sticks, lead to a sustained improvement in the outlook for growth, inflation and the public finances in Israel. We also outline... 17th January 2025 · 7 mins read
