Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf slowdown underway After a stellar performance for most of 2022, the Gulf economies are slowing. Primarily, that has reflected the impact of oil production cuts agreed with the rest of OPEC+ which is weighing on growth... 23rd February 2023 · 14 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Mixed signals from underlying inflation The January CPI data provided mixed signals about developments in underlying inflation. The CPI excluding food and energy and the CPI excluding the eight most volatile components each rose by just 0.1... 22nd February 2023 · 8 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack External vulnerabilities to ease as growth weakens The latest data suggest that current account deficits in the region’s major economies narrowed towards the end of last year, which is particularly good news for Colombia and Chile. Both were running... 22nd February 2023 · 15 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa sticking with fiscal prudence In today’s budget speech, South Africa’s finance minister tried (largely successfully) to pull off the difficult task of sticking to fiscal prudence while partly relieving the struggling state-owned... 22nd February 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack One year into the war in Ukraine The first year of the war in Ukraine has had an enormous impact on the country’s economy and left it highly dependent on financing from allies. Russia’s economy has contracted too, but it weathered... 22nd February 2023 · 15 mins read
China Economics Update Hong Kong’s recovery to benefit from fiscal support With Hong Kong’s economy on the mend, the budget unveiled today curtailed some of last year’s emergency spending. But it still signals a supportive fiscal stance, particularly in areas hardest hit by... 22nd February 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update The impact of higher bond yields on public finances The higher bond yields that would follow abandonment of Yield Curve Control would make it more difficult to stabilise Japan’s public finances. But the long maturity of government debt means that the... 22nd February 2023 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack Adani spill-over risks: not out of the woods yet In a crowded field given the FY23/24 Union Budget and the RBI’s more-hawkish-than-expected policy announcement, the Adani short-selling crisis has been the main story over the past month. So far at... 21st February 2023 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s public finances under increasing strain Russia’s budget deficit has widened sharply in recent months and is likely to remain under pressure amid lower oil prices and rising military spending. The government is unlikely to experience severe... 21st February 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Jan.) January’s public finances figures suggest the Chancellor will have scope for some giveaways in his Budget on 15 th March. But with the OBR poised to slash its medium-term GDP growth forecasts, any... 21st February 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Petro spooks investors (once again), Brazil’s fiscal rule In Colombia, President Petro’s healthcare reform unveiled this week reinforces our concerns about a worsening public debt trajectory and more interventionist policymaking, and caused the peso to fall... 17th February 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA budget preview, final stretch ahead of Nigeria’s polls South Africa’s mounting economic and political challenges, including the deepening energy crisis, set the stage for the fiscal scales to tip towards providing more support and away from fiscal... 17th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update Five key questions on Nigeria’s public finances No matter who wins the race to be Nigeria’s next president, the public debt-to-GDP ratio is likely to remain on an upwards path in the near-term. But victory for an opposition candidate could make the... 15th February 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa triggers disaster law, Nigeria’s polls The declaration of a state of disaster in South Africa’s State of the Nation Address over the deepening energy crisis has grabbed the headlines and, in the small print, there were signs of a... 10th February 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s earthquake, Russia’s budget, CEE inflation While the human losses from the earthquakes that hit Turkey and Syria this week are first and foremost in everyone’s minds, we think the overall economic impact on Turkey’s economy will be more... 10th February 2023 · 11 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia: large fall in the dinar lies in store Tunisia’s fragile balance of payments of position has deteriorated further over the past year and the dinar appears increasingly overvalued. We think that the currency needs to fall by at least 30%... 8th February 2023 · 4 mins read
