Asia Economic Outlook Tightening cycles to be short lived as headwinds grow Further interest rate hikes are likely across the region in the near term, and we have raised some of our year-end forecasts to reflect growing concern among the region’s policymakers about inflation... 20th July 2022 · 34 mins read
US Economic Outlook Economy to avoid recession narrowly We expect the economy to avoid a recession only narrowly, as higher interest rates trigger a contraction in residential investment and weakness in consumption growth. Core inflation has been stronger... 19th July 2022 · 23 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Soaring inflation to trigger a recession A rise in CPI inflation from the 40-year high of 9.1% in May to a peak of 12% or higher in October will reduce real incomes by enough to mean that a recession now seems inevitable. Our forecast that... 18th July 2022 · 27 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook BoJ will reduce pressure on Yield Curve Control Supply shortages and continued virus caution will result in a weaker recovery in Japan than most anticipate. With wage growth sluggish too, the Bank of Japan won’t see a need to lift its policy rates... 18th July 2022 · 18 mins read
UK Economics The policies of the 5 wanting to be in Number 10 Even though the two candidates that are leading the race to be the next Prime Minister have pledged to loosen fiscal policy by less than the other candidates, whoever takes over as Prime Minister on 6... 15th July 2022 · 9 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Prospect of smaller budget deficits adds to BoJ’s woes With tax revenues soaring and pandemic-related expenditure set to be phased out, the budget deficit will shrink sharply over coming years. However, the resulting decline in bond issuance will make it... 15th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Recession won’t stop aggressive ECB tightening The euro-zone looks on course to fall into a mild recession in the coming quarters. Real incomes are falling, business sentiment has plummeted and growth in the region’s export markets is slowing... 14th July 2022 · 29 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Product shortages ease as activity weakens Recent data suggest that global economic activity was even weaker than we initially thought in Q2, with GDP probably contracting in several major economies including the euro-zone, UK and China. The... 13th July 2022 · 13 mins read
Capital Daily EUR/USD: To parity and beyond? While the euro’s rapid fall over the past couple of weeks means that a lot of bad news about the euro-zone economy now appears to be discounted, the trends driving the common currency lower may... 12th July 2022 · 7 mins read
US Economics Focus Is a recession coming soon? We think that the economy is well-placed to handle higher interest rates and anticipate a period of weak economic growth rather than an outright recession: Rate-sensitive spending is a relatively... 11th July 2022 · 17 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil price falls, Saudi & UAE fiscal loosening, PMIs Oil prices have fallen over the past month as global recession fears have mounted but, while they are likely to decline further over the coming years, they will remain high by past standards. This... 7th July 2022 · 5 mins read
India Economic Outlook More frontloading to come Strong economic growth and surging inflation have prompted the RBI to kick-start its hiking cycle and we think the central bank will continue to frontload policy tightening. In all, we think the repo... 7th July 2022 · 19 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Housing downturn raises recession risks With inflation rising even further than we had anticipated, both the RBNZ and the RBA will slam harder on the brakes than most anticipate. We expect policy rates to peak around 3.5% in both countries... 7th July 2022 · 25 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Inflation pressures remain intense The latest data suggest that underlying inflationary pressures in the euro-zone remain intense. Although core inflation edged down from 3.8% in May to 3.7% in June, this appeared to be down to... 6th July 2022 · 10 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Ocampo, BanRep hawks & Argentina in crisis (again) Colombian President-elect Gustavo Petro’s choice of José Antonio Ocampo as his finance minister provides an early sign that Petro will govern as an economic moderate. Mr Ocampo will also sit on the... 1st July 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Fall in confidence not enough to rule out aggressive rate hikes Signs that business confidence has started to ease may provide the Monetary Policy Committee with some reassurance that firms' pricing power will soon soften. But the danger that bigger increases in... 1st July 2022 · 4 mins read
