Europe Economics Update Rhine troubles add to pressure on German industry The fall in the Rhine’s water level is a small problem for German industry compared to the gas crisis, or indeed the recent shortage of semiconductors. But if it persists until December it could... 10th August 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Democrats embrace fiscal tightening The Inflation Reduction Act passed by the Senate over the weekend will, despite its name, do little to rein in inflation, but the climate provisions will make a meaningful difference in efforts to... 8th August 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly What the BoE told us and what it didn't We have been saying for some time that despite a recession, the Bank of England would be forced to raise interest rates. The Bank of England's signal that it is stepping up the fight against high... 5th August 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Heading for recession, ECB using PEPP flexibility The activity data published this week add to the evidence that the economy is heading for recession. Meanwhile, the ECB published data showing the degree of flexibility that it has applied to its PEPP... 5th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Jun.) The small increase in German industrial production in June was not enough to reverse declines earlier in the year and left output well below pre-pandemic levels. Things are going to get more difficult... 5th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Slowing sharply amid high inflation Euro-zone GDP increased by more than we had expected in Q2 as reopening effects boosted the services sector, particularly in the southern countries. But things have already taken a turn for the worse... 4th August 2022 · 10 mins read
US Economics Update Labour shortages easing only gradually The sharper fall in job openings in June signals that labour demand is now beginning to ease more markedly, but with the quits rate little changed and no signs of a pick-up in layoffs, labour market... 2nd August 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Business surveys point to slower GDP growth The slump in the CFIB Business Barometer in July – to a post-pandemic low – shows that the jump in borrowing costs is hitting more than just the housing market. With the survey still pointing to... 29th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2 2022) The chunky increase in euro-zone GDP in Q2 was due to the re-opening of the services sector which has masked a deterioration in most other parts of the economy. We expect a triple whammy of high... 29th July 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Jun.) The chunky increase in unsecured borrowing in June suggests that households are having to rely more on credit due to the cost of living crisis. But households won’t be able to fully offset the hit to... 29th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Taiwan GDP (Q2, provisional) GDP in Taiwan contracted last quarter as a surge in COVID-19 cases weighed heavily on consumer-facing sectors and exports slowed. Although consumption should bounce back now that virus cases are... 29th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily This is (probably) not the Powell pivot markets are looking for Financial markets have taken the combination of yesterday’s FOMC’s announcement and today’s negative US GDP print as confirmation that policymakers will ease off their aggressive monetary tightening... 28th July 2022 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update Loonie unlikely to have big bearing on policy outlook Governor Tiff Macklem has voiced concern about the inflationary impact of the loonie, but we doubt that a modest fall would prevent the Bank of Canada from pausing its tightening before the Federal... 28th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Your questions about the Global Economic Outlook We held an online Drop-In event yesterday to discuss our Q3 Global Economic Outlook and the forecasts within it (see an on-demand recording here). This Update addresses several of the client questions... 28th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden GDP Indicator (Jun. & Q2) The 1.4% q/q increase in Swedish GDP in Q2 poses upside risks to our below-consensus forecast for GDP growth in 2022. But with a recession on the cards in late 2022 and early 2023, activity is... 28th July 2022 · 2 mins read
China Economic Outlook Reopening rebound set to slow Activity has bounced back from lockdowns but China’s economic recovery will become more challenging from here on as exports turn from tailwind to headwind and the property downturn deepens. Policy... 28th July 2022 · 22 mins read
