UK Economics Weekly Political wobbles, dovish BoE, rebound in activity won’t last The dovish surprise at this week's Bank of England meeting, including the downward revision to the Bank's GDP growth forecasts despite the recent rebound in activity, leaves us more confident in our... 6th February 2026 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Local governments plan to keep tightening their belts China’s provincial governments have now concluded the annual meetings at which they set economic targets and lay out fiscal plans. They anticipate slower GDP growth this year and plan to continue with... 6th February 2026 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA and the bursting of the precious metals bubble We think that the recent drop in precious metals prices has further to run, and the recent outperformance in South Africa’s financial markets has come to an end. But on the macro side, South Africa’s... 6th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia-India energy relations, Turkey CPI, CEE rates We are sceptical that India will fully curtail its oil imports from Russia as part of the US-India trade deal announced this week, but even a partial scaling back of purchases could add to strains in... 6th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ will hike rates again in June The recent turmoil in Japan’s bond market seems to have prompted some soul-searching among policymakers in Tokyo and we remain convinced that a decisive LDP victory in the upcoming Lower House... 6th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Update How much of a buffer do government assets provide? Japan’s government holds more financial assets than governments elsewhere. While the value of the government’s domestic asset holdings could plunge during a crisis, a large share is invested overseas... 5th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Will Lula go on a pre-election spending spree? The balance of probabilities is tilted towards Brazil avoiding major additional pre-election fiscal loosening (and the resulting backlash in financial markets). As a result, we think the Selic rate... 4th February 2026 · 14 mins read
Canada Economics Update Insufficient defence spending plans won’t lift GDP growth The newly-planned rise in defence expenditure marks a much-needed shift from the Trudeau era but is still too small to sufficiently lift spending above 2% of GDP or generate significant multiplier... 4th February 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Analysing public debt sustainability in the euro-zone Among the largest euro-zone countries, public debt looks most worrying in France because it is on an upward trajectory and Italy because it is likely to remain very high. Government debt is also set... 3rd February 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Feb. 2026) The data published since the start of the year suggest economic activity and price pressures have strengthened. But we still expect annual GDP growth to slow and the weak labour market to weigh on... 2nd February 2026 · 1 min read
India Economics Update India’s Union Budget: function over fanfare In an unspectacular FY26/27 Union Budget summed up by the fall in equities since the announcement, the Finance Ministry has unveiled small boosts to spending in politically-sensitive areas and made up... 1st February 2026 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Jan 26) China’s growth slowed in December, with the economy expanding by just 3.1% in 2025. Export growth and fiscal support will continue to provide a significant (albeit smaller) prop to the economy over... 30th January 2026 · 0 mins read
India Economics Weekly Budget, RBI take centre stage after historic EU trade deal After the announcement this week of the long-awaited India-EU trade deal, attention will quickly shift back to domestic policy. The Union Budget on Sunday will reveal how the Finance Ministry will... 30th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly An LDP majority will not be fiscally profligate New polling suggests that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party is on track to secure an outright majority in the lower house following elections on February 8th. Although there have been concerns in... 30th January 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Larger tax refunds a windfall for households in H1 2026 Households’ annual tax refunds should be about $100bn larger this year, a windfall equivalent to 0.5% of annualised consumption. Although temporary, this boost gives us further reason to expect that... 29th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Jan. 2026) Our proprietary EM financial risk indicators show that vulnerabilities are becoming increasingly isolated, with the number of countries at “high risk” of a crisis now at multi-year lows. Sovereign... 29th January 2026 · 1 min read
