UK Economics Focus Medium-Term Fiscal Plan October 2022 – Preview As the new Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, unveils whether, when and how he will put public debt on a sustainable path in his Medium-Term Fiscal Plan on Monday 31st October, the big question will be whether... 20th October 2022 · 15 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt Gilt yields will perform a full Truss-style U-turn While today’s announcements by new UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt have been welcomed by the Gilt market, we don’t expect the 10-year Gilt yield to fall too much further in the near term. 17th October 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Chancellor Statement (17th Oct.) The Chancellor didn’t just do a further U-turn on the Truss/Kwarteng policies in his statement today, he essentially wiped them out in an attempt to reassure the financial markets that the government... 17th October 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Fiscal crisis to market crisis to political crisis The sacking of the Chancellor and the U-turn on corporation tax might not be enough for the government to regain the full confidence of the financial markets. For that to happen, more may need to be... 14th October 2022 · 9 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria’s public finances, ups and downs of SA industry The shelf life of Nigeria’s recently presented budget plans is likely to be short with elections due in early-2023 and no guarantee about policy continuity. Any new administration will not only have... 14th October 2022 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Chancellor sacked, further mini-budget U-turns (14th Oct.) 14th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Are we sliding towards fiscal dominance? Strictly speaking, recent measures by the Bank of England do not qualify as so-called “fiscal dominance”. But this could be the thin end of the wedge, and not just for the UK. While we are a long way... 13th October 2022 · 7 mins read
India Economic Outlook Pace of tightening set to slow The RBI has frontloaded policy tightening over recent months but with inflation peaking and economic headwinds building, we think the central bank will now slow the pace of tightening and revert to... 13th October 2022 · 20 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Egypt to suffer short-term economic pain Spillovers from the war in Ukraine and tighter external financing conditions have exacerbated strains in Egypt’s balance of payments and we think the pound needs to fall a lot further. This will add... 13th October 2022 · 15 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Three possible flashpoints for the markets The end of the Bank of England’s gilt purchases (14 th October), the publication of the Chancellor’s Medium-term Fiscal Plan (perhaps late this month) and the Bank of England’s next monetary policy... 7th October 2022 · 10 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Modest recession could morph into something worse The jump in interest rates and worsening global backdrop leaves the economy facing recession, and elevated debt levels are a downside risk to our forecast for a moderate peak-to-trough fall in GDP of... 6th October 2022 · 20 mins read
US Economic Outlook Recession will add to disinflationary pressure We expect inflation to fall more rapidly than the Fed anticipates, albeit partly because the even-bigger surge in interest rates will send the economy into a mild recession early next year and drive... 5th October 2022 · 24 mins read
Europe Economics Update Germany €200bn fiscal shield won’t prevent recession Germany’s huge off-budget facility designed to compensate households and businesses for the increase in energy prices is bigger than measures announced elsewhere. However, we don’t expect actual... 5th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Bank of Japan will remain the outlier In a difficult global environment, Japan's economy has benefitted in recent months from a reopening boom in consumption and the easing of supply shortages in industry. Those tailwinds will soon fade... 5th October 2022 · 24 mins read
