UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Jul. 2023) July’s public finances figures continued the recent run of better-than-expected news on the fiscal position. But with interest rates still rising and a mild recession on its way, we continue to think... 22nd August 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Dominican Republic’s economy set for a slowdown The Dominican Republic recorded an impressive post-pandemic recovery, but we think that a combination of a fading boost from tourism, weakness in the US and tight fiscal policy will cause growth to... 21st August 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Oil output cuts are driving a sharp slowdown in economic growth across the Gulf. The hit to volumes will more than offset the rebound in oil prices but, for now at least, fiscal policy is being kept... 21st August 2023 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina deeper in crisis, Ecuador votes Last weekend’s presidential primary elections in Argentina (known as the PASO) sent the economy deeper into crisis. Although the results probably portend a shift to the right (and more investor... 18th August 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Rise in rate expectations casts doubt on pre-election tax cuts We would be surprised if the Chancellor is unable to find any cash to deliver some popular sweeteners to the electorate ahead of the next general election. But the latest data are a setback for the... 18th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s fiscal position, destination Dubai, Gulf inflation Egypt’s government debt-to-GDP ratio jumped to 96% in FY2022/23, one of the largest ratios in the emerging world, but there remain reasons to think that the government will be able to avoid a... 17th August 2023 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update Policy paralysis has dented near-term outlook China’s economy has stalled recently and headwinds are still intensifying on multiple fronts. The lack of a stronger stimulus response partly reflects a greater tolerance for economic weakness. But it... 17th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update China, Africa and lengthy debt talks China’s prominence as a creditor to African economies goes a long way to explaining the slower speed of debt restructuring negotiations in Zambia, in contrast to Ghana, following their respective... 17th August 2023 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy is showing signs of coming off the boil, and core inflation is moderating. However... 17th August 2023 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia’s recession deepens Oil output cuts fuelled Saudi Arabia’s economic downturn in the first half of 2023 and the drag from the oil sector appears to have intensified more recently. Taking together with signs that activity... 14th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Italy’s windfall tax, France’s cruise ship The kerfuffle over the Italian government’s planned windfall bank tax is not likely to have any lasting impact on the economy, not least because PM Giorgia Meloni moved swiftly to limit the damage... 11th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update How much is fiscal policy supporting activity? With lingering pandemic and energy support measures coming to a close and governments returning one eye to previous fiscal targets, fiscal policy will tighten a little in advanced economies over the... 10th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Aramco profit slump, Egypt back on the orthodox train? The slump in the profits of Saudi Arabia’s state oil company, Aramco, in Q2 has focussed attention on the deterioration in the Kingdom’s budget position. But the authorities appear to be taking as... 10th August 2023 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation pressure dissipating The news that average hourly earnings growth increased by 0.4% m/m in July, and 4.4% over the past 12 months, might seem like a problem for the Fed. With productivity growth accelerating, however, it... 4th August 2023 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Near-term fiscal boost, follow-up measures needed Local governments have been told to issue and spend their remaining special bond quotas by end-October, which will boost fiscal outlays in the near-term. But more needs to be done to prevent a... 4th August 2023 · 7 mins read
