UK Economics Weekly Fiscal tightening may come later rather than sooner The big fiscal tightening set to be unveiled by the Chancellor at the Autumn Statement next Thursday is coming just as the recession begins. The clear risk is that the fiscal consolidation deepens the... 11th November 2022 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Construction cooling, fiscal rules and pivots We think euro-zone financial markets are getting ahead of themselves if they are sensing an imminent “pivot” by the ECB following the lower-than-expected US CPI number released yesterday. Indeed, we... 11th November 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs: a fiscal health check The dramatic improvement in EM public finances since the height of the pandemic is starting to run out of steam. And we think that fiscal dynamics are likely to get worse next year in parts of Central... 11th November 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Fiscal policy tightening just as the recession begins While the risk premium that pushed gilt yields up and the pound down after the mini-budget has mostly been reversed under the stewardship of Sunak and Hunt, the fear that the markets will baulk at any... 10th November 2022 · 9 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt-UAE wind farm, Dubai property, Egypt downgrade Egypt’s announcement at COP27 of plans to build one of the largest onshore wind farms is a positive move to increase renewables usage that will improve energy security and support the balance of... 10th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: How far will Hunt’s Autumn Statement go to appease the markets? 1668700800 Chief UK Economist Paul Dales and Jonas Goltermann, a senior economist from our Global Markets team, held a client briefing shortly after the Chancellor’s 17th November statement, to discuss his fi
UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement November 2022 – Preview In his Autumn Statement on 17 th November the Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, faces a deep dilemma. If he wants to reassure the markets, he will have to announce early action in the form of a big fiscal... 10th November 2022 · 19 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt and Tunisia heading down different paths The recent IMF deals reached by governments in Egypt and Tunisia are positive developments and will help ease balance of payments strains in both countries. Egypt has already made progress with... 9th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack ECB to keep hiking as stagflation intensifies The latest activity indicators show that the economy contracted in October, and the forward-looking measures of new orders and expectations suggest that the downturn will get worse. We have pencilled... 8th November 2022 · 11 mins read
Global Markets Update Tougher times may lie ahead for Brazil’s markets Brazil’s financial markets have been some of the world’s best performers lately, supported in part by the prospect of centrist policymaking by incoming president Lula. With the presidential election... 8th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Lula’s win, Chile’s pensions Financial markets responded positively to Brazil’s presidential election on Sunday. But we’re still waiting for more concrete details of whether Lula’s pledges to raise spending can be met while also... 4th November 2022 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank’s dovish tilt looking premature The modest fiscal loosening unveiled in the Fall Economic Statement this week is unlikely to move the needle much for monetary policy, but the surge in employment in October and the acceleration in... 4th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Strikes in SA, naira under pressure, Ethiopia ceasefire South Africa is on the cusp of large public sector strikes which will deal another blow to the recovery and raise the risk of fiscal slippage just a week after the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement... 4th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Fiscal restraint keeps markets on side The $6bn in new federal spending measures for this year, as outlined in the Fall Economic Update, amount to just 0.2% of GDP and will have little impact on the economic outlook or monetary policy. By... 3rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Farewell fiscal loosening The reports that Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, in his Autumn Statement on 17th November will unveil a fiscal tightening of up to £50bn suggests that fiscal policy will soon become a major drag on the... 28th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly MTBPS: last of the good news on SA’s public finances? South Africa’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement on Wednesday provided further good news on the state of the public finances, but pressure for public sector wage increases is just one of a number of... 28th October 2022 · 6 mins read
