Europe Economics Update

Italy budget: better than France but concerns remain

Italy’s 2025 budget, set to be approved by cabinet today, suggests Italy will bring its deficit below the 3% of GDP limit imposed by EU fiscal rules much sooner than France. But Italy’s debt-to-GDP...

15th October 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Answering your questions on Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030

We held an online Drop-In session last week to discuss progress on Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 reform programme and the implications for the Kingdom’s economic outlook. (An on-demand recording is...

15th October 2024 · 6 mins read

Event

Drop-In: South Africa Budget – Are the public finances really on the mend?

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South African Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana will be in a cheerful mood when he delivers the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) on 30th October; the budget deficit

Africa Economics Update

SA: MTBPS likely to double down on austerity

South Africa’s Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana will be in the unusual position of presenting the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) later this month against the backdrop of a sharp...

15th October 2024 · 4 mins read

India Economics Update

Modi resisting populist shift

Contrary to many expectations in the aftermath of the BJP’s humbling in the general election, there is little evidence so far of Prime Minister Modi’s party shifting to more populist policymaking. And...

15th October 2024 · 3 mins read

China Economics Update

MOF promises more spending but scale still unclear

China’s Finance Ministry has pledged to significantly increase government debt, as well as ensure that RMB2.3trn in unused funds (equivalent to 1.6% of GDP) are spent by year-end. The latter should...

12th October 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

September CPI data, Poland’s fiscal tightening plans

The batch of September inflation data this week offered some welcome signs for policymakers, but the Hungarian central bank seems concerned about recent currency weakness which means that the easing...

11th October 2024 · 7 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

Budget jitters

The recent falls in business and consumer confidence are undoubtedly due to the prospect of higher taxes in the Budget on 30th October. And the probable boost to demand from more public investment...

11th October 2024 · 7 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

France’s 2025 budget; two-way risk for energy prices

Having survived a vote of no confidence earlier in the week, France’s government presented its 2025 budget on Thursday, which highlighted the perilous state of the public finances. Meanwhile, energy...

11th October 2024 · 6 mins read

China Economics Weekly

What to look for at the MoF press conference

All eyes are on the Ministry of Finance's crucial press conference tomorrow morning. We think this year’s growth target is just about achievable if local governments can be pushed to fully deploy...

11th October 2024 · 10 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Tunisia election, UAE budget, Saudi King’s health

Incumbent Kais Saied won Tunisia's election in an (unsurprising) landslide and his second term will probably see the economy remain on the path towards a messy balance of payments crisis and sovereign...

10th October 2024 · 8 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

China’s policy stimulus and the spillovers to EMs

China’s policy stimulus measures have generated large market moves but it is the fiscal element, which hasn’t been detailed yet, that has the potential to lift the economy. We’re not expecting a huge...

10th October 2024 · 4 mins read

China Economics Update

Is fiscal loosening the answer?

China’s economy has some cyclical spare capacity that could be filled with fiscal stimulus. But its troubles are mostly structural. The finance ministry won’t solve them on Saturday.

9th October 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Chart Pack

UK Economics Chart Pack (Oct. 2024)

We think the Chancellor will raise taxes in line with the planned £16bn (0.6% of GDP) a year increase in public spending at the Budget on 30th October. The main influence of this will just be a...

9th October 2024 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi Arabia tees up fiscal consolidation for 2025

Saudi Arabia’s 2025 Pre-Budget statement provided the first clear signs that officials are accepting that they need to pare back on some of their ambitious spending goals, which supports our view that...

8th October 2024 · 3 mins read