UK Economics Update BoE losses add pressure on the public finances The Treasury has started to make payments to the Bank of England’s Asset Purchase Facility (APF) to cover the losses it has racked up because of the Bank of England’s gilt purchases. While this won’t... 25th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Construction the next shoe to drop The big surprise so far this year has been the resilience of housing starts which, despite falling from their 10-month high of 300,000 annualised in September, remained at a relatively strong 267,000... 24th November 2022 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy: budget hurdle cleared, but debt risks remain Italy’s draft 2023 budget confirms that, for now, the new right-wing government is committed to fiscal responsibility. As a result, the risk of turbulence in BTP markets has fallen, but it remains... 22nd November 2022 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack Economic resilience won’t stop inflation falling The resilience of consumer spending is keeping hopes of a soft landing alive. Although GDP growth looks to have slowed in the fourth quarter, and most leading indicators of recession are flashing red... 22nd November 2022 · 10 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Oct.) October’s public finances figures showed that government borrowing is no longer coming in below last year’s monthly totals. And the combination of the government’s energy price support and pressures... 22nd November 2022 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack Higher rates feeding through to real economy The RBI has hiked interest rates by 190bps since May and, while that is relatively benign compared to the moves seen in many other EMs, this tightening is now feeding through to the economy. Purchases... 21st November 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey’s election: a fork in the road for the economy Voters in Turkey head to the polls in 2023 and if the ruling People’s Alliance and President Erdogan cling on to power, the authorities are likely to double down on their “new economic model”, raising... 21st November 2022 · 40 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Surging inflation won’t last Headline inflation shot up to 3.7% y/y in October, the strongest since December 1990 while inflation excluding fresh food and energy rose from 1.8% to 2.5%. Although this puts inflation well above the... 21st November 2022 · 11 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Monetary tightening now, fiscal tightening later With the planned fiscal squeeze coming after 2024/25, the Autumn Statement was not just good politics, but good economics too. Even so, the UK's fiscal consolidation stands out in comparison to the... 18th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil spending cap, Lula at COP27, consumer slump? While Brazil’s president-elect Lula reaffirmed his pledge to crack down on illegal deforestation in the Amazon at the COP27 conference this week, his comments on fiscal policy and his transition team... 18th November 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Fiscal Statement – Restoring credibility In his Autumn Statement, the Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, appears to have pulled off the tricky task of reassuring the financial markets of the government’s fiscal discipline while also managing not to... 17th November 2022 · 14 mins read
UK Economics Update Autumn Statement 2022 Checklist We are resending this checklist so clients can have it to hand ahead of today’s Autumn Statement at 11.30am GMT. This checklist helps clients keep track of the key economic and public finances... 16th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s bad loans, inflation outlook brightening Brazil’s president-elect Lula sent local financial markets into a tailspin late this week after he stressed the need for higher spending, reinforcing our concerns that the country’s public debt... 11th November 2022 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Manufacturing boost to SA, Kenya’s public finances The surprising strength of South Africa’s manufacturing data for September has lengthened the odds that the economy was in a technical recession over Q2 and Q3. And in Kenya, bond markets have rallied... 11th November 2022 · 7 mins read
