UK Economics Update Spring Budget 2023 Checklist This checklist helps clients keep track of the key forecasts announced during the Spring Budget at 12.30pm (GMT) on Wednesday 15 th March. Our more detailed preview is here. We will send a Rapid... 14th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Economy on brink of mild recession The economy is on the brink of a mild recession but with underlying inflation still accelerating, we expect new Bank of Japan Governor Ueda to end Yield Curve Control at the upcoming meeting in April. 13th March 2023 · 23 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Could Copom cut (soon)? Chile’s tax reform We think that investors in Brazil are getting ahead of themselves by pricing in rate cuts as early as Q2. Despite February’s fall in inflation, core price pressures are still uncomfortably strong... 10th March 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Slimming the size of the possible recession With the hit to real activity from high inflation having been and gone and mostly absorbed by government handouts and a real terms reduction in households’ pandemic savings, we no longer think there... 10th March 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Q4 collapse in domestic demand a bad omen Recent evidence about the health of the euro-zone economy has been mixed. National figures released so far suggest industrial production rebounded in January but retail sales remained very weak. And... 8th March 2023 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Focus Spring Budget 2023 Preview We expect the Spring Budget on 15 th March to contain some giveaways confined to 2023/24. But a downgrade to the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) medium-term GDP growth forecasts will prevent... 8th March 2023 · 17 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: The economic and market consequences of the Spring Budget 1678894200 What will UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt deliver in his Spring Budget?
China Economics Focus China’s economic roadmap for 2023 The economic plans that have been detailed at the National People’s Congress are more cautious and restrained than had seemed likely given the pro-growth messaging ahead of the event. That suggests... 6th March 2023 · 16 mins read
China Economics Weekly What to make of the growth target The GDP growth target for 2023 will be revealed on Sunday at the opening of the National People’s Congress. There is speculation that it could be raised relative to last year but we think that’s... 3rd March 2023 · 9 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt: winners and losers of a weaker EGP emerging Recent falls in the pound and rising borrowing costs forced Egypt’s Ministry of Finance to revise up its targets for debt and the budget deficit earlier this week, but we remain of the view that the... 2nd March 2023 · 8 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Politics and the public finances Sub-Saharan Africa’s two biggest economies, Nigeria and South Africa, are both facing slow-burning debt problems. In Nigeria at least, elections on Saturday offer an opportunity to shift towards... 24th February 2023 · 12 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina & the IMF, Banxico hawks Argentina is closing in on the next disbursement of IMF funding but, while the economy met many of last year’s performance criteria, the deal is likely to become rockier this year. Elsewhere, the... 24th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Malaysia’s infrastructure budget, Korea’s hawkish hold Malaysia today announced a modest tightening of fiscal policy for 2023, but the most eye-catching element of the budget was a significant (and welcome) increase in infrastructure spending. Global Drop... 24th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf slowdown underway After a stellar performance for most of 2022, the Gulf economies are slowing. Primarily, that has reflected the impact of oil production cuts agreed with the rest of OPEC+ which is weighing on growth... 23rd February 2023 · 14 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Mixed signals from underlying inflation The January CPI data provided mixed signals about developments in underlying inflation. The CPI excluding food and energy and the CPI excluding the eight most volatile components each rose by just 0.1... 22nd February 2023 · 8 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack External vulnerabilities to ease as growth weakens The latest data suggest that current account deficits in the region’s major economies narrowed towards the end of last year, which is particularly good news for Colombia and Chile. Both were running... 22nd February 2023 · 15 mins read
