Latin America Economics Weekly

Mexico’s Pemex problem, Copom’s politicisation

Comments from Mexican officials this week that the government could take some of Pemex’s debts onto its own balance sheet would ease the firm's default risks. But it would come at the expense of a...

10th May 2024 · 7 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

ECB-Fed divergence; new CDU manifesto

The Riksbank joined the club of European central banks that cut rates ahead of the Fed this week. The ECB is almost certain to follow suit in June and we think it would take a very big hawkish shift...

10th May 2024 · 8 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBA on an extended pause, budget in the spotlight

Although the RBA left rates unchanged at its meeting this week, Governor Bullock stated that the Board was prepared to raise rates if it had to. Against this backdrop, there have been concerns from...

10th May 2024 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Mexico: fiscal concerns return to the spotlight

The Mexican government’s pre-election spending spree means that the next administration will have its work cut out to put the country’s public finances back onto a stable footing. Claudia Sheinbaum...

8th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi Arabia can stick with its loose fiscal stance (for now)

Saudi Arabia’s budget deficit widened further at the start of this year and, for now at least, the government seems comfortable with maintaining the loose fiscal stance and issuing more debt. If oil...

7th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

SA growth, Nigeria petrol subsidy, Kenya floods

South Africa’s manufacturing PMI for April released this week added to the evidence that growth will pick up over the coming quarters. But stronger growth is coming too late to help the ANC’s election...

3rd May 2024 · 5 mins read

China Chart Pack

China Chart Pack (Apr. 24)

China’s economy grew at a healthy pace in the first quarter of 2024. Our China Activity Proxy suggests this was on the back of strong external demand. While fiscal support should continue to keep the...

30th April 2024 · 0 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Poland: risk of fiscal complacency creeping in

The Polish government’s white paper on Monday set out a scathing review of the previous government’s fiscal record and highlighted the challenges facing the public finances, but if we’ve learned...

30th April 2024 · 4 mins read

China Rapid Response

China Politburo Meeting (Apr. 24)

China’s senior leadership has today signalled further fiscal and monetary support for the economy and renewed efforts to stabilise the housing market. That should help prolong the recent economic...

30th April 2024 · 3 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

No SARB rate cuts in 2024, SSA subsidy removal

The SARB’s biannual Monetary Policy Review published this week, which showed less confidence in South Africa’s disinflation trend and reiterated the desire to move to a lower inflation target...

26th April 2024 · 5 mins read

China Economics Weekly

PBOC bond trading, LGFV pullback

The PBOC has clarified that its plans to start trading government bonds are aimed at managing interest rate risk, not conducting QE. This reinforces our sense that large-scale monetary easing remains...

26th April 2024 · 6 mins read

India Chart Pack

India Chart Pack (Apr. 2024)

Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India has been the star performer among major EMs over the past several quarters and the latest data...

24th April 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

“Turnaround EMs”: good start but plenty more to do

The policy shifts underway in Turkey, Nigeria, Argentina and Egypt have ticked a lot of the right boxes so far, but it will take years for the full economic benefits to materialise and require...

24th April 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (Apr. 2024)

Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Activity in the region picked up in Q1 and we expect this to continue in the coming quarters...

24th April 2024 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Apr. 2024)

The escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran has largely been shrugged off by the oil market and risk premia in the Gulf remain low. Even so, growth will remain weak in the Gulf this year...

24th April 2024 · 1 min read