UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Oct. 2023) October’s public finances figures won’t deter the Chancellor from embarking on a pre-election fiscal giveaway in his Autumn Statement on Wednesday. We think he will unveil a net fiscal giveaway... 21st November 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Autumn Statement 2023 Checklist This is an updated checklist which takes into account our latest expectations for the Autumn Statement. The checklist helps clients keep track of the key policies and forecasts announced during the... 20th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Fall statement unlikely to contain any giveaways For the first time since the pandemic, the government will find itself with less fiscal room than expected when it provides an update of its plans next week. Accordingly, we doubt that the Fall... 17th November 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly What the Chancellor won’t tell us The Chancellor will squeeze as much political juice out of Wednesday's Autumn Statement to try and regain the agenda ahead of an election next year. But he won't tell us that bigger pre-election... 17th November 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Germany’s constitutional court strikes again The constitutional court ruling that the German government's use of off-budget funds is unlawful is another headache for the ruling coalition in Berlin. However, we doubt that it will result in as... 17th November 2023 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Labour market to loosen, infrastructure outlays to ease Data released this week showed that Australia's labour market remained tight in October, while wage growth accelerated to a 14-year high in Q3. However, with leading indicators suggesting that the... 17th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Public debt risks remain acute in several Frontiers Sovereign debt risks across Frontier Markets have eased slightly since last quarter. But dollar-bond spreads in Ethiopia have jumped following its request for debt-service suspension earlier this week... 16th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: outlook remains fragile despite oil price boost The squeeze on Russia’s budget and current account positions has eased over the second half of this year, largely thanks to a rise in oil prices. Higher energy revenues next year should help to limit... 15th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia: recession nearing an end The latest Saudi GDP data paint a downbeat picture in which the recession has deepened amid oil output cuts. But the good news is that the recession looks to be coming to an end. And we think the... 15th November 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement 2023 Preview - Short-term political gain worsens long-term fiscal pain With the government still languishing far behind in the opinion polls and an election required before the end of January 2025, the Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, is under more pressure than ever to pull... 15th November 2023 · 20 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenya default risks fall, Dangote oil refinery ramps-up Kenya’s partial payment of its $2bn Eurobond will improve its chances of avoiding a sovereign default next year. Extra IMF funds and an improved balance of payment position will also help, but... 10th November 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Copom minutes, Chile’s constitution The minutes to last week's Brazilian central bank meeting revealed that policymakers remain concerned about inflationary pressures, with inflation expectations now considered to be "unanchored". A... 10th November 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update Assessing public debt risks in Africa In this Update, we present our sovereign debt heat map that provides a snapshot of debt risks across Sub-Saharan Africa. Government debt is still above pre-pandemic levels and most economies we cover... 10th November 2023 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly State elections, grain scheme extension, food inflation The extension of the free food grain scheme by another five years is clearly geared towards firming up support for the BJP ahead of state elections this month (as well as the general election next... 10th November 2023 · 4 mins read
