UK public borrowing exceeds official forecast in September Alex Kerr, economist at Capital Economics, said the figures “highlight the limited scope the chancellor has to increase day-to-day spending without raising taxes”. Kerr noted that the latest figure... 22nd October 2024 · Financial Times
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Sep. 2024) While it is too late for September’s disappointing public finances figures to influence the amount of headroom the OBR will hand the Chancellor in the Budget on 30th October, they do highlight the... 22nd October 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa’s MPR, Nigeria’s policy shift The South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Review (MPR) released this week made clear that a recommitment to fiscal consolidation and structural reforms are key to creating extra space for... 18th October 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Does a £40bn “funding gap” mean £40bn of tax rises? The Chancellor’s £40bn “funding gap” doesn’t mean that the Budget on 30th October will involve £40bn of tax rises. Some of this “funding gap” will probably be paid for with higher borrowing and some... 18th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s spending review, Argentina’s surplus, Chile rates A proposed “spending review” in Brazil would, if approved by President Lula, ease fears about the state of the public finances and reduce the chances of aggressive rate hikes by the BCB. Elsewhere... 18th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Ishiba trying to shore up support ahead of election PM Ishiba has signaled that this year’s supplementary budget will be larger than last year’s. That’s largely motivated by concerns that the LDP won’t do well in next week’s Lower House elections... 18th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus EM debt restructurings: light at the end of the tunnel? Several EMs have reached provisional agreements with creditors to restructure their sovereign debts in recent months, including Zambia, Ukraine, Sri Lanka and Ghana. In principle, restructurings... 17th October 2024 · 21 mins read
Global Economics Update China stimulus unlikely to have big spillovers to DMs We may learn more about the size and structure of China’s fiscal package over the next couple of weeks, but based on what we know the impact on advanced economies will probably be small. The bigger... 16th October 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Budget 2024 Preview In her first Budget on Wednesday 30th October the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, faces the unenviable task of trying to achieve three objectives. First, being able to say there will be “no return to... 16th October 2024 · 26 mins read
Europe Economics Update Further thoughts on France's 2025 budget We are nudging down our forecast for economic growth in France next year from 1.0% to 0.7% because of the government’s plan to tighten fiscal policy. That said, we think the deficit will come down... 16th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy budget: better than France but concerns remain Italy’s 2025 budget, set to be approved by cabinet today, suggests Italy will bring its deficit below the 3% of GDP limit imposed by EU fiscal rules much sooner than France. But Italy’s debt-to-GDP... 15th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Answering your questions on Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 We held an online Drop-In session last week to discuss progress on Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 reform programme and the implications for the Kingdom’s economic outlook. (An on-demand recording is... 15th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Event Drop-In: South Africa Budget – Are the public finances really on the mend? 1730304000 South African Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana will be in a cheerful mood when he delivers the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) on 30th October; the budget deficit
Africa Economics Update SA: MTBPS likely to double down on austerity South Africa’s Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana will be in the unusual position of presenting the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) later this month against the backdrop of a sharp... 15th October 2024 · 4 mins read
