Emerging Europe Economics Update

EDP won’t heal CEE’s fiscal fragilities

The European Commission’s recommendation to open the Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) against Poland, Hungary and Slovakia for breaching the EU’s fiscal rules won’t force a drastic change in...

19th June 2024 · 5 mins read

Climate Economics Update

Fiscal constraints working against the green transition

The tightening of fiscal constraints is putting pressure on politicians to pare back green investment ambitions. But kicking the fiscal can down the road on measures that could accelerate the green...

18th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook

GDP growth pick-up on a fragile footing

Growth in the Gulf economies is likely to pick up in the coming quarters, particularly as oil output starts to rise from October. We think non-oil sectors will continue to grow strongly. But the...

18th June 2024 · 20 mins read

Japan Chart Pack

Japan Chart Pack (Jun. 2024)

Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. While the economy has only narrowly avoided a recession, activity should rebound over coming...

18th June 2024 · 1 min read

Event

Europe Drop-In: French political turmoil and macro/market spillover risks

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Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call a snap legislative election has triggered turmoil in French politics that is spilling into its financial markets.

Africa Economics Weekly

Nigeria food prices, Kenya budget, ANC-DA deal

A surge in food prices in Nigeria this week presents a challenge to the optimistic tone the authorities are trying to strike on the inflation outlook. To contain these inflation risks for good, the...

14th June 2024 · 7 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Currency worries, good news from Argentina

Recent sharp falls in the Brazilian real and Mexican peso will add to concerns at their respective central banks. We now expect no further rate cuts in Brazil this year and the risks to our already...

14th June 2024 · 8 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Malaysia subsidy cuts, BoK minutes, Pakistan budget

Headline inflation in Malaysia has been among the lowest in Asia but that is soon set to change now that the government is pushing ahead with long-planned subsidy cuts aimed at improving the public...

14th June 2024 · 6 mins read

India Economics Weekly

New government, same faces

The minimal personnel changes in PM Modi’s new cabinet suggests the new government’s policy direction will be similar to before. Admittedly, concessions on spending may have to be made to appease the...

14th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Higher bond yields won’t prompt massive repatriation

While 10-year JGB yields have fallen well below 1% as the BoJ today delayed the announcement of tapering plans to its July meeting, they are still around a decade-high. The ability of Japanese...

14th June 2024 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBA will look past impact of energy rebates

This week the Queensland government followed in the footsteps of the Western Australian government and the Commonwealth by announcing significantly more generous energy subsidies for households. With...

14th June 2024 · 5 mins read

UK Economics Update

Will the next government deliver or deviate from its manifesto?

While what’s in and what’s out of the election manifestos is informative, the bigger issue is whether the next government delivers or deviates from its manifesto. This Update sketches out three...

13th June 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Morocco’s EVs to fuel auto boom, Aramco issuance

The EU’s tariffs on EV imports from China may encourage Chinese firms to raise investments into Morocco, whose auto sector is growing rapidly on the back of expansion plans from both Chinese and...

13th June 2024 · 7 mins read

UK Economics Focus

Could new fiscal rules spur on the economy?

The current fiscal framework is not perfect and could be reformed to improve investor confidence in the management of the public finances, tilt the composition of spending towards investment and...

12th June 2024 · 16 mins read

Europe Economics Update

How radical would Le Pen’s party be in office?

France’s National Rally has advocated policies that would increase the budget deficit and provoke clashes with the EU. During the election campaign, it will probably moderate these views, but the...

11th June 2024 · 3 mins read