UK Economics Update Should the Budget lower stamp duty to revive the housing market? Speculation is mounting that the Chancellor might ultimately decide to follow the US lead and deliver a fiscal stimulus to the economy. With the housing market in the doldrums, and first time buyer... 15th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Just how bad could the public finances get? A major downturn in the UK economy could see public borrowing rise as high as £100bn or even £150bn per annum, blowing the fiscal framework to smithereens and perhaps even leading to some rise in the... 14th February 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update France won't succumb to pressure to reduce deficit The latest pressure on the French government to bring its finances into order is unlikely to alter its fiscal plans in the near term. Indeed, with tough talk from other euro-zone ministers confirming... 12th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Northern Rock another blow to the public finances The decision by National Statistics to take Northern Rock onto the Government’s books may not necessarily break the Government’s Sustainable Investment Rule. Nonetheless, it clearly deals another blow... 7th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update PFI accounting change another fiscal blow According the Financial Times this morning, the adoption of international financial reporting standards (IFRS) in the public accounts from this April could lead to the inclusion of the Government’s... 5th February 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Fiscal policy won't cushion the euro-zone Recent calls (most notably from IMF head Dominique Strauss-Kahn) for governments to use fiscal policy to support their economies beg the question of whether the euro-zone might benefit from such... 29th January 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Can Chinese fiscal policy do more to stimulate demand? Fears over the demise of the US consumer have left many wondering where the next source of global demand will come from. We are sceptical that increased Chinese demand will do much to offset the... 29th January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What are the prospects of a UK fiscal rescue package? The fiscal barriers to a US-style tax cutting package aimed at supporting the economy are not as obstructive they might at first look. Nonetheless, the potentially undesirable effects on interest... 24th January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Northern Rock another fiscal pinch The probable nationalisation of Northern Rock is unlikely to lead to a clear breach of the Chancellor’s fiscal rules, which apply over the whole economic cycle. Nonetheless, it would further underline... 17th January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Public sector not the key threat to pay growth The inflationary risk posed by the mounting unrest about the Government’s hard-line stance on public sector pay is fairly limited. The main risk to pay growth comes directly from the private sector... 10th January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Pre-Budget Report 2007 Now we know why the Prime Minister chose not to go to the country early. The economic and financial position has worsened such that it would now only be possible to give some significant pre-election... 9th October 2007 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus UK Pre-Budget Report 2007 Now we know why the Prime Minister chose not to go to the country early. The economic and financial position has worsened such that it would now only be possible to give some significant pre-election... 9th October 2007 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus UK Pre-Budget Report Preview - A pre-election splash? Make no bones about it, this year’s Pre-Budget Report (PBR) will have one aim and one aim only – to ensure that Gordon Brown wins a general election. We expect some fairly large tax cuts purely... 4th October 2007 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus UK Pre-Budget Report Preview - A pre-election splash? Make no bones about it, this year’s Pre-Budget Report (PBR) will have one aim and one aim only – to ensure that Gordon Brown wins a general election. We expect some fairly large tax cuts purely... 4th October 2007 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update French budget confirms supportive fiscal policy 26th September 2007 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Measured fiscal leniency will boost French growth Recent moves towards granting France a little leniency around the EC’s strict fiscal rules suggest that the economy could receive a significant fiscal boost, over the next few years at least. We think... 1st August 2007 · 1 min read
