Asia Economics Update Change of tone in China, but no big policy shift Contrary to speculation by some commentators, Beijing’s slight change of emphasis on the economy over the weekend is more likely to show up in fiscal policy and administrative support for exporters... 28th July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Fiscal reform will simply delay tax increases The Government’s decision to “reform” its fiscal rules will help it to avoid deepening the economic downturn by raising taxes over the next year or two. But it does not alter the fact that a major... 18th July 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan on hold until global backdrop improves On their own, the Bank of Japan’s revised economic forecasts are still consistent with our view that interest rates could be raised again by the end of the year. Nonetheless, the deteriorating global... 15th July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Oil’s fiscal benefits dwarfed by threat of economic downturn The latest surge in the oil price to $130 per barrel (pb) looks set to have mixed implications for the public finances. On the positive side, the higher level of prices should provide the Government... 29th May 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Is the improvement in the Czech public finances sustainable? The remarkable improvement in the Czech public finances since the early part of this decade is unlikely to be sustained over the next couple of years. In fact, we think that the fiscal deficit could... 8th May 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spain’s fiscal boost won’t offset the housing market downturn The latest news on the Spanish housing market supports our view that it is only a matter of time before house prices fall sharply with significant adverse effects on the wider economy. 18th April 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus What role can fiscal policy play in rebalancing China's economy? Fiscal policy could make a significant contribution to reducing China’s massive current account surplus, though discussion of rebalancing often overlooks its potential. The government has the... 17th April 2008 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus What role can fiscal policy play in rebalancing China’s economy? Fiscal policy could make a significant contribution to reducing China’s massive current account surplus, though discussion of rebalancing often overlooks its potential. The government has the... 17th April 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus UK Budget 2008 - Hoping for the best! This Budget was conspicuously short of major tax and spending measures. The main interest was therefore in the change to the Treasury’s economic forecasts and the associated projections for government... 12th March 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus UK Budget 2008 - Hoping for the best! This Budget was conspicuously short of major tax and spending measures. The main interest was therefore in the change to the Treasury’s economic forecasts and the associated projections for government... 12th March 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Budget Checklist This checklist is intended to help clients keep track of the important measures and numbers announced during the Chancellor’s Budget speech at 12.30pm and to provide some instant context. 12th March 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Budget Checklist This checklist is intended to help clients keep track of the important measures and numbers announced during the Chancellor’s Budget speech at 12.30pm and to provide some instant context. 12th March 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Caught between a Rock... Alistair Darling presents his first Budget at a time when the apparent needs of the economy and the public finances could hardly be further apart. His room for manoeuvre is pretty tight, but he might... 3rd March 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Caught between a Rock... Alistair Darling presents his first Budget at a time when the apparent needs of the economy and the public finances could hardly be further apart. His room for manoeuvre is pretty tight, but he might... 3rd March 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India: slowdown + elections = fiscal populism At 8.4% y/y, India’s Q4 GDP figure confirmed that it is not immune to the global slowdown. The deceleration is not entirely unwelcome as it puts growth on a more sustainable path. Nevertheless, in a... 29th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Should the Budget lower stamp duty to revive the housing market? Speculation is mounting that the Chancellor might ultimately decide to follow the US lead and deliver a fiscal stimulus to the economy. With the housing market in the doldrums, and first time buyer... 15th February 2008 · 1 min read
