UK Economics Weekly The big squeeze is still coming Several recent developments appear to have cast some doubt over the likelihood and size of the widely expected post-election tightening of fiscal policy. Recent opinion polls have raised the chances... 8th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Just how damaging would a hung parliament be? There are worries that a hung parliament could lead to higher interest rates and a lower credit rating – a nasty scenario for sterling assets. But with monetary policy set to remain extremely loose... 4th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How much has the car scrappage scheme boosted growth? We estimate that the car scrappage scheme has boosted UK GDP by just 0.1% or so per quarter. Nonetheless, the end of the scheme could still dent growth if consumers brought forward spending to take... 4th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update EC’s endorsement won’t fully relieve Greek worries The European Commission’s endorsement of the Greek Government’s plan to get its public finances under control is unlikely to relieve market concerns over Greece’s position altogether. 3rd February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Greece close to breaking point? Fears that the further rise in Greek bond yields over the last week has stretched the public finances to breaking point may be a little over-done. Nonetheless, Greece still faces an enormous challenge... 2nd February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Greece really so much worse? The recent blow-out in Greek Government bond spreads seems to over-do the depth of its fiscal problems compared to those of other crisis economies like Ireland. But Greece has clearly lost the markets... 28th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portugal’s Budget won’t dispel market worries The markets and credit rating agencies had been looking to yesterday’s budget for confirmation that the Portuguese Government is prepared to follow other fiscally strained euro-zone economies in... 27th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will a delay in German tax cuts prevent the recovery? Hints from the German Government that promised income tax cuts could be put off until at least next year make a convincing consumer revival seem even less likely. But we still expect a relatively... 25th January 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian elections to spotlight fiscal frailties The very worst fears of a major fiscal blow-out in the run-up to Hungary’s parliamentary elections are probably overblown. But given Hungary’s comparatively high level of debt and history of fiscal... 25th January 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances & CBI Industrial Trends (Dec./Jan.) December’s public finances figures will do little to ease the pressure for a major fiscal tightening after the general election. But at least the manufacturing sector finally seems to be benefiting... 21st January 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: IMF loan back on track, but growth to disappoint Romania’s parliament last night agreed a series of cuts to this year’s budget that should get its IMF-led loan programme back on track. Nonetheless, the economic recovery is still likely to disappoint... 15th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Portugal the next Greece? Recent suggestions that Portugal may be “the next Greece” overlook the fact that Portugal’s economic and fiscal position is fundamentally healthier. Still, this month’s budget may need to reveal... 12th January 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: is an IMF deal imminent? Recent quotes from leading policymakers suggesting that Turkey is in advanced talks with the IMF should be taken with a pinch of salt, particularly as negotiations have already dragged on for over a... 7th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How much will fiscal tightening hurt Europe? Greeces troubles have highlighted the need for decisive fiscal consolidation in at least parts of the euro-zone. This need not be as aggressive as in the UK or US, but could still knock over 0.5% off... 7th January 2010 · 1 min read
