UK Economics Focus Budget 2010 Preview - A holding operation Alistair Darling’s third Budget will be hardly recognisable as the last before a general election. With the UK’s budget deficit baring comparison with that of Greece, the markets and credit rating... 15th March 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus How will China tighten? We expect China to raise interest rates and announce a series of required reserve ratio (RRR) hikes over the next few months, but this should not be interpreted as aggressive tightening. Indeed, the... 11th March 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is China serious about rebalancing? The Prime Minister’s address to the National People’s Congress today highlighted near-term policy continuity but offered little sign the government is getting to grips with China’s structural... 5th March 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine: not on the brink, but the risks are still high The collapse of Ukraine’s government earlier today may paradoxically be a positive development, but a lot of progress still needs to be made before access to IMF funding is unfrozen. Accordingly... 3rd March 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update New Greek measures may open door to firmer support The news that the Greek Government will tomorrow announce further measures to reduce its budget deficit raises hope that it will receive the firmer support from the rest of the euro-zone it requires... 2nd March 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India starts fiscal consolidation, higher rates will be next Q4 GDP growth published today came in far weaker than expected but the slowdown will be short. Today’s FY10-11 budget aims to cut the fiscal deficit, which is good news. Private sector spending is... 26th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek bail-out now more likely than not The revelation that Greece used complex financial assets to improve the official figures on the public finances earlier this decade highlights the uncertainty surrounding the reliability of these... 24th February 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian debt is safer than Turkish debt Spreads on Russian and Turkish foreign currency bonds relative to US Treasuries have moved in lockstep since October 2009. (See Chart 1.) The prospect that commodity prices (and especially oil prices)... 23rd February 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Is Japan the next Greece? Japan should be able to avoid the sort of crisis that has hit Greece so hard. Government debt may be even larger in Japan, but the country is in a much stronger position in almost every other respect. 22nd February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Jan.) January’s UK public finances figures suggested that this year’s budget deficit could exceed that of Greece and further underlined the need for more decisive action to improve the fiscal position when... 18th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Belgium the Greece of the North? Despite growing fairly solidly in the last two quarters, Belgium shares some worrying similarities with Greece and the other troubled Southern euro-zone economies. But its stronger trade position and... 17th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Greece’s problems are ours too Greece is the word in the financial markets at the moment. But aside from the potential for weak puns like that (“Greek tragedy”, “acropolis now” etc.), what do recent developments there mean for the... 12th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update VAT’s the way they like it Further changes to VAT are an appealing option for improving the fiscal position. But by pushing inflation even higher and perhaps limiting the scope for offsetting monetary support, excessive... 9th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What would a Greek bail-out look like? Speculation that a bail-out of Greece may be imminent has moved the focus on to exactly what form a rescue package may take. The precise details of any bail-out might have important implications for... 9th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update VAT’s the way they like it Further changes to VAT are an appealing option for improving the fiscal position. But by pushing inflation even higher and perhaps limiting the scope for offsetting monetary support, excessive... 9th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is France next in the markets’ sights? As worries about the public finances spread throughout the euro-zone, France is the latest to edge on to the radar screens. Given a relatively low stock of debt and healthy economic outlook, its... 8th February 2010 · 1 min read
