Europe Economics Update Is Greece the next Lehmans? The crisis in Greece could pose as big a risk to the global economy and financial markets as the collapse of Lehman Brothers did in September 2008. In some respects the wider fall-out might even be... 28th April 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Public sector job cuts could yet take unemployment to 3m The argument over whether Labour’s National Insurance rise or the Conservatives’ efficiency savings will cost more jobs detracts from the bigger picture that the required fiscal squeeze will result in... 28th April 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greece still dangling from a precipice With considerable uncertainties over when the joint IMF/euro-zone rescue package for Greece will be implemented, Greece is still dangling from a precipice. If Europe is to pull Greece back up it will... 27th April 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Fiscal frontloading lifts Korean growth Korea’s GDP accelerated in Q1 and growth is set to stay high in Q2. Inflation pressures should rise during the course of the year and the risk is that the Bank of Korea continues to move slowly and... 27th April 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Don’t be fooled by the better fiscal news Last week’s public finances figures for March, revealing a £3bn undershoot of the Chancellor’s forecast for public borrowing in 2009-10, may have raised hopes that the beneficial effects on the public... 26th April 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greece on a knife edge Greece is in the midst of another hellish week and now faces no choice but to seek to formally activate the European rescue package. While this may help to ease the markets’ frazzled nerves, the... 22nd April 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances & Retail Sales (Mar.) March’s public finances figures provided the Government with a modest pre-election boost in revealing an unexpected undershoot of the Budget forecasts for public borrowing in 2009/10. But a long and... 22nd April 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus UK Election Preview - The phoney fiscal debate The outcome of the general election on May 6 is unlikely to transform the basic trajectory of the UK economy over the next five years. Whoever gains power will find their economic policy priorities... 21st April 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan’s IMF programme appears back on track Reports over the weekend suggest that Pakistan and the IMF have patched up their differences. Renewed funding under the Standby Agreement will help to sustain the economic upswing but inflation looks... 19th April 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: fiscal rule not the last word on budget discipline In the absence of a new IMF programme, a fiscal rule could help to reassure markets that Turkey remains committed to maintaining fiscal discipline. But even a well designed fiscal rule requires... 19th April 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What's the best use of a consumption tax hike? Finance Minister Kan's suggestion that any hike in the consumption tax should be used to increase government spending would risk backfiring in the markets. Even if increased public spending in certain... 19th April 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Show us the money! Despite the firmer details provided on the Greek rescue package, markets have made it crystal clear that they have deep reservations about the bailout. Before even considering lending on more... 19th April 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portugal warnings underline broader fiscal problems The European Commission’s warnings about Portugal’s budget plans are a timely reminder that the euro-zone’s fiscal crisis extends well beyond Greece. 14th April 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update The broader implications of the Greek bail-out Opinions on the broader implications of the Greek rescue package for the future of the euro-zone not surprisingly differ widely. But the conditions that made the bail-out necessary will have a... 14th April 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Modest industrial recovery on track Last week’s further blow-out in Greek bond yields suggests that any slim chances that Greece had of muddling through its crisis on its own have all but evaporated. Some form of rescue - or at least a... 12th April 2010 · 1 min read
