China Economics Update China’s impossible trinity China is seeking to rein in bank lending and hold to a conservative fiscal stance while maintaining rapid economic growth. It cannot do all three. 27th July 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update The Philippines’ fiscal position is poor but not disastrous Bad news on the budget deficit has trickled through in recent weeks and there is scepticism about the Philippine government’s ability to limit the shortfall to its new (upwardly-revised) target for... 26th July 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: IMF reforms to come at a cost In stark contrast to recent developments in Hungary, the fiscal cutbacks announced by the Romanian government have so far helped to keep its IMF-led loan deal alive. But these will come at a cost. We... 26th July 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Can Hungary go it alone? Hungary can probably survive without a new IMF/EU programme for the remainder of this year. But we suspect it will eventually be forced to re-engage with the Fund either later this year or early in... 23rd July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Fiscal squeeze to slam the brakes on consumer spending We expect the fiscal tightening to leave real household disposable incomes falling by 1% next year and stagnating in 2012 the tightest squeeze since the mid-1970s. As a result, we no longer expect... 21st July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Jun.) June’s public finances figures put something a dent in recent hopes that the fiscal position is now on a clearly improving path. 20th July 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: IMF deal breaks down This weekend’s breakdown in talks between the Hungarian government and the IMF rounds off a dire start for the new Fidesz government. While Hungary can get by without IMF funds for now, Hungarian... 19th July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Policy challenges for the new Government The new coalition Government has made an industrious start. But it still faces some major policy challenges if it is to achieve the multiple goals of sorting out the public finances, improving... 15th July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Policy challenges for the new UK Government The new coalition Government has made an industrious start. But it still faces some major policy challenges if it is to achieve the multiple goals of sorting out the public finances, improving... 15th July 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greece still heavily reliant on its bailout facility On the face of it, today’s Greek treasury bill auction, the first since April’s bailout package was activated, provides some reassurance that markets’ confidence may be gradually returning. But Greece... 13th July 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update IMF deal a tentative step in the right direction for Ukraine The financial markets’ luke warm endorsement of Ukraine’s new IMF deal is probably justified. While a new IMF programme is good news in theory, in practice its success will depend on whether or not it... 5th July 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Output, Spending, Labour (May) & SME Conf. (Jun.) The third successive monthly increase in the unemployment rate will add to concerns that the recovery in domestic demand is too fragile to offset any slowdown in exports as a result of weakening... 29th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Fiscal worries eased, but not eliminated Last week’s tougher than expected Budget has helped to ease market concerns about the UK’s fiscal outlook, but it won’t eliminate them altogether. For a start, the vast bulk of the planned fiscal... 28th June 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Constitutional Court deals blow to Romania’s fiscal cutbacks This morning’s ruling by the Romanian Constitutional Court against planned cuts to state pensions deals a blow to the government’s austerity programme. While much remains uncertain, it seems unlikely... 25th June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Are the euro-zone austerity measures working? Recent data on the public finances suggest that the euro-zone peripheral governments are broadly on track to meet their ambitious fiscal targets for 2010. But these governments still face an enormous... 25th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Emergency Budget 2010: Tough but tender This was a Budget with two faces. The total discretionary tightening will build up to 8% of GDP per annum by 2015-16, larger than Canada’s in the 1990s, but smaller than Sweden’s and Finland’s. 22nd June 2010 · 1 min read
