Europe Rapid Response

Second round results of France’s parliamentary election

The exit polls for the second-round of France’s legislative election are certainly a surprise. The left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) appears to have become the biggest group in parliament, while...

7th July 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Update

Where are fiscal concerns greatest – the UK, France or US?

With the public finances in the UK in decent shape relative to France and the US, and the new UK government committing to greater fiscal discipline, we think investors are right not to worry as much...

5th July 2024 · 5 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

The key milestones ahead as Starmer enters No. 10

As the dust settles on the election result, there will be a lot of discussion about what comes next. We think Labour may move quickly on its low-cost supply side reforms, such as overhauling planning...

5th July 2024 · 8 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Kenya, austerity and the IMF, SARB eyeing up cuts?

After being forced to withdraw the 2024/25 Budget, Kenya’s President Ruto outlined new fiscal plans today that will go some way towards easing concerns among investors and the IMF. Elsewhere, comments...

5th July 2024 · 5 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Budget deficit set to keep narrowing

Our analysis suggests that Japan's budget deficit is narrowing much more quickly than most were anticipating. That underpins our view that the ratio of public debt to GDP should return to pre-virus...

5th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt’s cabinet reshuffle, PMIs, Oman income tax

Egypt’s cabinet reshuffle gave the government a facelift, but it doesn’t look like there will be any U-turns on policymaking – and particularly the fiscal consolidation path. Meanwhile, the batch of...

4th July 2024 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Egypt needs to stick to frugality to ease debt fears

Egypt’s government faces a likely further rise in debt servicing costs over the coming year. But the good news is that the budget for the 2024/25 fiscal year (which started this week) reaffirmed the...

3rd July 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Colombia: public finance concerns here to stay

The recently-published fiscal plans of Colombia’s government seem to have alleviated some near-term fiscal concerns, but we think the medium-term budget and debt projections are based on rosy...

2nd July 2024 · 5 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Germany no longer immune to budget trouble

Much of the recent focus has been on France’s political turmoil, but Germany has had its own troubles with disagreement over the 2025 budget threatening the survival of the governing coalition. While...

1st July 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi Arabia and the possible implications of MbS as king

Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s (MbS) ultimate succession to become king is inevitable and a formality. Having been the de-facto leader of the Kingdom for several years it may not...

1st July 2024 · 6 mins read

Europe Economics Update

First round results of France’s parliamentary election

The preliminary results of the first round of voting are broadly in line with the final opinion polls, showing that Emmanuel Macron’s centrist coalition has lost out to both the left and right. But a...

30th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (June. 2024)

GDP growth is likely to pick up over the coming quarters as inflation falls back and gives way to monetary easing cycles whilst the external environment will also be more favourable for most...

28th June 2024 · 0 mins read

China Economics Weekly

Consumption support still falling short

New government guidelines on how to create "new consumption scenarios" are still largely focused on supply-side reform, while little is being done to address demand weakness. Alongside a ramp-up in...

28th June 2024 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

French election spillovers, Turkey’s inflation descent

The first round of the French election taking place this weekend could put further upward pressure on bond yields in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), particularly if concerns about the direction for...

28th June 2024 · 8 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

SA coalition cracks, Kenya protests, Ghana debt deal

Disagreements between the South Africa’s largest party, the ANC, and its main partner in the government of national unity, the DA, over cabinet posts reinforces our point that the coalition is fragile...

28th June 2024 · 5 mins read