Europe Economics Weekly Ireland: Closure or Calamity? The Irish Government deserves some credit for coming clean last week on the “horrendous” costs of its banking support measures, although its openness may have been dictated as much by public... 4th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update France and Portugal struggle to apply fiscal squeeze Recent developments in France and Portugal confirm that both are struggling to implement measures to ensure a sustained reduction in public borrowing. But market pressures will force Portugal to act... 30th September 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Ireland on the brink? The recent run of disappointing news from Ireland means that public debt is looking increasingly likely to reach Greek proportions, suggesting that the Irish Government may eventually be left with... 28th September 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Fiscal strains yet to ease After the recent run of better-than-expected news on the public finances, August’s terrible borrowing figures provided a timely reminder of the scale of the fiscal challenge that lies ahead. 27th September 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spain not yet out of the woods Despite the markets growing more pessimistic about the prospects for Ireland and Portugal, bond yields in Spain have remained relatively stable, suggesting that concerns about its public finances have... 22nd September 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Aug.) August’s public finances figures severely dented hopes that the fiscal position is on a clearly improving trend and cast doubt on the ability of the Government to deliver the fiscal tightening laid... 21st September 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fiscal policy paralysed by bipartisan disagreement The Obama administration has released a flurry of proposals designed to stimulate the flagging economic recovery. However, the chances of any of these proposals being passed by Congress ahead of... 13th September 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea biding its time, but rate hikes lie ahead The Bank of Korea (BoK) unexpectedly held its policy rate at 2.25% today. Concerns about rising global uncertainties tipped the balance in favour of no change, despite the BoK expecting solid GDP... 9th September 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Belgian political stalemate increases debt concerns Recent developments are not easing the concerns that we have previously raised over Belgium being the Greece of the North. While the Belgian economy is growing healthily, the current political crisis... 8th September 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Central Europe: the fiscal squeeze is here 8th September 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update "Plan B" is to bank on the MPC The apparent lack of a “plan B” for the public finances should the economy be weaker than the Government expects supports our forecasts of sluggish growth and further monetary loosening. 6th September 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is it time to worry about fiscal discipline in Turkey? The Turkish bond market has shrugged off the news that a much vaunted fiscal rule will not now be implemented until 2012 at the earliest. This may be justified since, on its own, a rules based... 26th August 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Retail Sales & Public Finances (Jul.) Not only did the latest UK data suggest that the fiscal position is tentatively improving, but it looks like the slowdown emerging in the wider economy has not spread to the high street yet. 19th August 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek fiscal squeeze taking its toll on the economy Recent news has confirmed that the Greek central government is meeting its ambitious deficit reduction goals, adding to evidence that it will receive its second tranche of euro-zone and IMF funds in... 12th August 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Political turmoil unlikely to threaten Italy's public finances Since Italy has already put in place measures to reduce its budget deficit over the next couple of years, the current political uncertainties do not pose a major risk to the near-term outlook for the... 9th August 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Can the UK survive the squeeze? (Q3 2010) The fiscal contraction is now well and truly underway. However, we doubt that the conditions are in place for the economy to take such a sharp squeeze in its stride. 3rd August 2010 · 1 min read
