Latin America Economics Update Peru: Early warning signs of higher inflation in 2011 The outlook for inflation in Peru is deteriorating but the policy response is not straightforward. Interest rate hikes would only serve to increase speculative inflows of ‘hot money’, while fiscal... 4th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portuguese Budget will only buy time The Government finally passed its 2011 Budget in parliament yesterday. This may provide some relief after weeks of political tension but the episode has re-awakened market concerns. And while Portugal... 4th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone default mechanism poses near-term risks Proposed arrangements for a permanent crisis resolution mechanism in the euro-zone threaten to have counter-productive effects on member countries’ fiscal consolidation efforts. 2nd November 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed ready to roll the dice again With Republicans set to make significant gains in this week's mid-term elections, our suspicion is that fiscal policy will end up being largely paralysed for the next two years. The Fed should... 1st November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Belgian growth slows as political stalemate drags on In a sign of what may be to come for the euro-zone, the pace of the Belgian recovery has slowed. While a modest fiscal tightening will partly shield consumers, the political crisis and talk of the... 27th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the proposed Irish budget cuts be big enough? The Irish Government’s announcement that it will implement an additional fiscal squeeze worth €7.5bn (4.8% of GDP) over the next four years is a big step in the right direction. But we think that... 27th October 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Spending Review has not lessened the fiscal pain Last week’s long awaited Spending Review appeared to include a moderate watering down of the planned cuts in public expenditure over the next four years. Nonetheless, an extremely onerous fiscal... 25th October 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Spending Review spells out the pain In spelling out the detail of the planned cuts in public spending, today’s Spending Review underlined the challenge the Government faces to sort out the public finances. We continue to believe that... 20th October 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Spending Review to deepen the gloom This week’s long-awaited Spending Review will do little to alter the macro-economic landscape. We already know the overall spending plans for the next five years and, while some changes to the totals... 18th October 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Can the spending cuts actually be achieved? The sheer size of the Government’s planned reductions in public spending and the likely weakness of the economy cast major doubts on whether the cuts can actually be achieved in full. But big cuts are... 14th October 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian fiscal efforts do not go far enough The Hungarian government last night announced a fresh set of fiscal austerity measures, which should allow it to at least come close to meeting next year’s budget deficit target of 3% of GDP. But its... 14th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Fiscal tightening starts to bite (Q4 2010) The European economy has recently performed relatively well despite continued fears about public debt in parts of the region. But as global demand slows, the export recovery will falter, with the euro... 13th October 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook How will companies weather the fiscal storm? (Q4 10) Companies may weather the coming fiscal storm rather better than households and the public sector. But they certainly won’t survive entirely unscathed. 11th October 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Slovakia: fiscal squeeze adds to headwinds facing recovery The overall state of the public finances in Slovakia is in better shape than in most of Emerging Europe. Even so, a combination of tighter fiscal policy and, more importantly, a fading recovery in... 6th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek Budget still leaves plenty to do The fact that the Greek Government has announced that it expects to reduce its budget deficit by more than the IMF and EC have demanded in 2010 and 2011 is an indication of the great strides that it... 4th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Ireland: Closure or Calamity? The Irish Government deserves some credit for coming clean last week on the “horrendous” costs of its banking support measures, although its openness may have been dictated as much by public... 4th October 2010 · 1 min read
