Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary hikes again, but all eyes back on fiscal policy The National Bank of Hungary (NBH) this afternoon voted to hike interest rates by 25bps for the third consecutive month (to 6.00%). The outlook remains highly uncertain, but on balance today’s move... 24th January 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Faltering recovery adds to fiscal challenges The appointment of Kaoru Yosano as Minister for the Economy and Fiscal Policy has revived discussion of the case for a hike in the consumption tax, but no decision is likely until mid-year at the... 24th January 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Tombini starts with a hike, attention now turns to fiscal policy Last night, the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) hiked interest rates by 50bps to 11.25%. Rates will probably be increased by another 50bps at March’s meeting too. But if rumours of a fiscal tightening... 20th January 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Tighter fiscal policy is still the key for Brazil Contrary to claims by some commentators, we think that tighter fiscal policy has a key role to play in ensuring that Brazil meets its current inflation/inflows challenge. Indeed, we would go as far to... 14th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Nov.) November’s UK public finances figures confirmed that the recent stronger performance of the economy has so far had little positive impact on the dire fiscal position. 21st December 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly European policymakers still doing the bare minimum The news that EU leaders reached agreement last week on the treaty changes required to establish a “permanent crisis mechanism” in 2013 is unlikely to ease pressures in the peripheral bond markets... 20th December 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly How far will the fiscal stimulus boost growth? The recent run of stronger economic data has prompted us to raise our fourth-quarter GDP growth forecast to 4% annualised, from 2.5%. Based on the higher starting point for GDP going into next year... 20th December 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Two elephants leave no room for more fiscal stimulus The corporation tax cuts agreed by the Cabinet today and the supplementary budget passed at the end of November are simply tinkering at the margin. The mountain of public debt and looming demographic... 16th December 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand set for a prolonged fiscal tightening The half-yearly Economic and Fiscal Update published overnight in New Zealand makes it clear that the May Budget will be a tough affair even though 2011 will be an election year. It is essential that... 14th December 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What can euro-zone policymakers do? Euro-zone policymakers face enormous challenges to avoid a near-term financial disaster, reduce governments’ debt burdens in the medium term and foster economic growth. Given the scale of these tasks... 13th December 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Dec.) Most of the peripheral euro-zone economies, excluding Spain, are still struggling to meet their budget deficit targets for this year, suggesting that additional fiscal measures will be needed next... 9th December 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Irish Budget fails to lift the gloom As anticipated, the first vote on the Irish 2011 Budget was passed by Parliament late last night. But while this reduces the chances of the Government being unable to tap its bail-out facility for... 8th December 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Stimulus proposals could provide sizeable boost to growth The package of tax proposals agreed by the Obama administration and Republican leaders constitutes an additional fiscal stimulus worth slightly less than $300bn, or 2% of GDP, above and beyond what we... 8th December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update OBR sounds a cautious note The downgrades to the Office for Budget Responsibility’s economic growth forecasts for the next two years are hardly a vote of confidence in the Government’s claim that the economy is capable of... 29th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Irish bailout details provide markets with little comfort The further details of the Irish bailout package and the euro-zone’s permanent crisis resolution mechanism confirm that Germany and other European hardliners are in no mood to make major concessions... 29th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Ireland's fiscal plans will do little to ease markets' fears The recent increase in political uncertainty and rising concerns about banks’ near-term funding needs have only added to Ireland’s problems. Indeed, the further details on the shape of the fiscal... 24th November 2010 · 1 min read
