Europe Economics Focus Can European policymakers rise to the challenge? Well over a year into the euro-zone debt crisis, policymakers still face enormous challenges if they are to prevent the region’s problems from continuing to escalate. On current evidence, it is far... 1st March 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary's fiscal reforms: impressive rhetoric but short on detail The long-awaited ‘structural revamp’ of the public finances that was unveiled by Hungary’s government earlier today was big on rhetoric but short on detail. The bottom line is that the government’s... 1st March 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India's budget targets look hard to achieve The Indian budget, passed today, aims to bring the deficit down to 4.6% of GDP in 2011/12. We judge that this will be difficult to achieve, primarily because the planned expenditure reduction looks... 28th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Budget fight could get nasty The growing spat surrounding the possibility of a Federal government shutdown and the debate over raising the debt ceiling could turn out to be nothing more than old-fashioned political theatre, with... 28th February 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Will Saudi Arabia's latest stimulus be enough? Saudi Arabia’s latest fiscal boost is important but not the only reason why the country is unlikely to face civil unrest soon. In fact, much of the $36 billion announced yesterday was already part of... 24th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Jan.) January’s public finance figures provided reassurance that the Government is on track to meet this year’s borrowing forecasts. However, we continue to think that the slowing recovery will mean that... 22nd February 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore's upswing will stay in good shape Singapore announces its latest budget on Thursday, and we anticipate that the key measures will include supports for low-income groups to cope with higher food and fuel prices. In addition, the budget... 14th February 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil's cuts look big but off-balance sheet spending still key Last night’s announcement of budget cuts worth R$50bn (1.3% of GDP) should mean that Brazil’s government meets – or perhaps even betters – its ‘official’ target for the primary budget surplus of 3% of... 10th February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek fiscal position remains deeply worrying On the face of it, the recent fall in Greek sovereign CDS premia and press reports suggesting that Greece will receive the fourth tranche of loans from its bail-out package in March are encouraging... 9th February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What to look for from Hungary's spending cuts The Hungarian government is due to begin debating a “structural revamp” of the public finances in the coming weeks, which will entail substantial budget cuts. A first reading of the Growth and... 7th February 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update How much should we fear a consumption tax hike? In a parliamentary debate today Prime Minister Kan hinted that the government does not intend to raise Japan’s consumption tax until after the next Lower House elections, which are not scheduled to... 2nd February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Rising inflation unnerves the ECB The further rise in euro-zone CPI inflation at the start of 2011 will have done little to ease the ECB’s fears that price pressures in the region are building. Nonetheless, inflation remains far lower... 1st February 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fiscal outlook continues to deteriorate The latest Federal budget projections from the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office underline the terrible state of the public finances. This year's deficit is now expected to reach $1,480bn, or 9... 31st January 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Three ways the fiscal crisis could play out The potential market implications of a fiscal crisis may not be as clear cut as some assume, particularly for JGBs, but it is hard to see any outcome that does not involve some further weakness both... 31st January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jan.) Most of the peripheral euro-zone economies appear to have made some inroads into their large budget deficits last year, with Spain taking the lead. 25th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Preliminary GDP (Q4) & Public Finances (Dec.) Although heavily affected by the weather, the UK’s shockingly bad Q4 GDP figures - showing a 0.5% quarterly contraction - raise serious concerns over whether the economy is in a strong enough position... 25th January 2011 · 1 min read
