Europe Economics Update Bank roll-over plan a small step forward for Greece The French plan for banks to roll over a significant chunk of their maturing Greek government debt could significantly reduce Greece’s near-term funding pressures. But we doubt that the roll-over plan... 29th June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Sagging tax receipts put cracks in Plan A Last week’s public finances figures for May brought the clearest signs yet that the weakness of the economy is starting to hinder the Government’s fiscal consolidation efforts. 28th June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (May) & CBI Ind. Trends (Jun.) May’s public finances figures brought the clearest signs yet that the weakness of the economy is having an adverse effect on the public finances. 22nd June 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly New budget, same old problems The submission to the Diet of a second supplementary budget in early July is not expected to have a large impact. The macroeconomic effects of the additional budget are likely to be small, and it is... 21st June 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly End of QE2 won't drive Treasury yields higher With the end of QE2 approaching, it is notable that in the first quarter the Fed absorbed all of the net issuance of Treasury debt and then some. Nevertheless, we still believe it is the stock of... 14th June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Between a rock and a hard place The Chancellor is stuck between the proverbial rock and hard place. Yes, the fiscal squeeze is stifling the recovery. But abandoning the consolidation would not guarantee that growth prospects would... 14th June 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Will Oman's additional spending boost growth? Oman has recently announced significant additional government spending over the previous commitments made in April, which is likely to have an impact on economic growth in the near term. Nonetheless... 10th June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Plan B worries underline low interest rate outlook The ongoing concerns over the lack of a “Plan B”, should the economy be weaker than the Government’s fiscal plans assume, underline the need for interest rates to stay low for a long time yet. 7th June 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Federal Budget 2011 The new Conservative majority government now aims to tackle its updated C$36.2bn deficit essentially over four years, which we think will prove far too optimistic. A global economic slowdown, a drop... 6th June 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan's fiscal target may prove difficult to achieve Pakistan’s federal budget was announced late last week with the aim to narrow the chronic fiscal deficit. The government is rightly looking to broaden the tax base and scale back subsidies, but... 6th June 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Budget unlikely to differ much from first version If the Bank of Canada was trying to hint in last week's statement that a rate hike might be on the way then that message was largely drowned out by the unrelenting flow of weak economic data coming... 6th June 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Doubling of consumption tax still not enough Japan’s DPJ-led administration finally seems ready to bow to the inevitable and double the country’s consumption tax over the next five years. However, this might not be enough to pay for the... 2nd June 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What is the economic impact of Egypt's new budget? Egypt’s government budget for the fiscal year 2011/12 (which starts in July) has focused on public sector salaries, as well as food and fuel subsidies, which is predictable given the social unrest and... 2nd June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Fringes of UK to be worst affected by fiscal squeeze The relative performance of the regions of the UK over the next few years depends in part on their different exposure to the public sector and the fiscal squeeze. The fringes of the UK – and Northern... 2nd June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (May) While Spain has made good progress in reducing its central government budget deficit this year, its growing regional deficits are a cause for concern. Meanwhile, the Greek and Irish deficits are still... 1st June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Apr.) April’s public finance figures have got the new fiscal year off to a bad start. We continue to doubt that the Government will be able to get borrowing down to meet the fiscal projections this year or... 24th May 2011 · 1 min read
