Emerging Europe Economics Focus Euro-crisis: How big is the contagion threat? The prevailing view that Emerging Europe should be able to avoid contagion from the escalating crisis in the euro-zone could prove to be dangerously complacent. At the very least, strong trade ties... 22nd July 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Plenty of deficit reduction plans, but still no agreement An agreement to raise the debt ceiling still appears to be some way off, but not for lack of trying. Every day seems to bring a new deficit reduction plan. With the clock ticking, we doubt there is... 21st July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greece needs much more than a bank levy News that a bank levy may be used to help fund Greece’s second rescue package suggests that eurozone policymakers are more concerned about appeasing taxpayers than adopting bold and decisive measures... 21st July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Last chance saloon for euro-zone policymakers? This week’s crucial summit could provide the last chance for euro-zone policymakers to get a grip on the region’s debt crisis. Anything other than a very decisive response which could be applied not... 20th July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Does the Government need a Plan B? The Government is unlikely to switch to a Plan B incorporating a markedly slower pace of fiscal consolidation unless the economy is very weak or even in recession. Accordingly, the outlook under Plans... 19th July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How a banking crisis could sink the euro A loss of confidence in the banking system of a euro member country could potentially result in all of that country’s bank liabilities effectively ending up as the liabilities of the ECB. The sheer... 19th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly How exposed is the US to European debt defaults? The risk that the US government will default on some of its debt obligations lingered last week as the stand-off over the raising of the debt ceiling appeared to intensify. At the same time, it has... 19th July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s troubles raise risk of euro-zone break-up The growing recognition that highly indebted economies need more than temporary loans has caused the spotlight to turn on Italy. With EU taxpayers unlikely to stump up enough cash to rescue such a... 14th July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update The beginning of the end for the euro? The continued failure of European policymakers to agree on a new package to support Greece and the growing signs that larger economies like Spain and Italy are being dragged further into the crisis... 13th July 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How big a worry is the suspension of US aid for Pakistan? The US government announced on Sunday that it has suspended $800m in military aid to Pakistan amid a further deterioration in the relationship between the two countries. The announcement is clearly a... 12th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Debt ceiling impasse drags on The impasse over raising the debt limit continued last week, although it looks like the two sides are edging closer to a deal ahead of the 2nd August deadline set by the Treasury. If there's no deal... 12th July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly A reality check for Portugal Last week’s move by credit rating agency Moody’s to cut Portugal’s rating to below investment grade was a stark reminder that default concerns are not confined to Greece. While the move was fiercely... 12th July 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Why do countries default and what are the consequences? History suggests that in many cases a sovereign default ultimately proves to be a good thing for the country concerned, as it can set the stage for economic recovery. This is more likely to be the... 8th July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Hidden costs could hinder Portugal’s fiscal efforts The Portuguese government’s latest efforts to implement extra fiscal measures to ensure it meets its budget deficit target are encouraging. But even if the Government manages to push through the huge... 1st July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jun.) While plans for a Greek debt roll-over and a second bail-out should ease immediate default concerns and funding pressures, Greece is still struggling to rein in its budget deficit, highlighting the... 30th June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek disaster averted, for now at least The fact that the Greek parliament has passed the Government’s medium-term fiscal plan clearly reduces the chances of a near-term disaster, but the country remains in a precarious position. 30th June 2011 · 1 min read
