Emerging Europe Economics Update First thoughts on Hungary's move back to the IMF News that Hungary will commence talks with the IMF on a “new type of cooperation” is clearly a positive step following the turmoil seen in local markets over the past couple of weeks. The forint has... 17th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the new Spanish Government steady the ship? Although Spain is in a rather better position than its Southern European counterparts, the next Government still faces huge challenges and is unlikely to overcome them without outside help. 16th November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia's new oil tax: radical reform or damp squib? The relative stagnation in Russian oil production over the past few years has long been a concern for policymakers. However, it seems unlikely that the new, more favourable, tax regime for Russian oil... 16th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy needs more than a new government The departure of Silvio Berlusconi may have prompted hopes that Italy has come back from the brink, but we still think that a new government is unlikely to prevent an eventual default. 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What are the implications of Argentina's subsidy cuts? Initial measures aimed at reducing Argentina’s growing subsidy bill are too small to make a meaningful difference to the public finances. Nevertheless, the commitment to review the entire subsidy... 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Fussing over federal finances is misplaced We agree that the federal government will take longer than previously thought to return to budgetary balance but, really, so what? Considering that the primary federal budget is already balanced and... 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will the G20 achieve anything in Cannes? The G20 leaders’ summit this week will be an exercise in damage limitation. The agenda has been completely over-taken by the euro crisis, where there is no agreement on the role non-euro-zone... 2nd November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Oct.) Further signs that some of the region’s most troubled economies are struggling to meet their budget deficit goals, coupled with growing evidence that the euro-zone is entering a new recession... 31st October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Policymakers fail to get ahead The plans agreed at last week’s EU summit look like another example of policymakers sprinting to catch up with events, but failing to get decisively ahead. We are not suggesting that the positive... 31st October 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Chinese whispers alone won't save the euro Despite yet another round of speculation suggesting that China is about to ride to the rescue of the euro-zone, Europe will still have to solve its own problems. Meaningful Chinese support would... 29th October 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How damaging will a Greek default be? The immediate fall-out from a Greek default should be manageable and much less damaging than that which followed the collapse of Lehmans, even if it does count as a “credit event”. However, this... 26th October 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How vulnerable is Indonesia to a global financial crisis? In the event of a global financial crisis stemming from the sovereign debt problems in Europe, there will be major concerns over Indonesia’s exposure to volatile capital flows, its vulnerability to... 25th October 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Does a sovereign debt crisis always cause a financial crisis? While there are no direct historical parallels with the current situation in Europe, a review of past experience suggests policymakers may need to resolve the euro-zone’s sovereign debt crisis... 25th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Trade protection policies becoming more appealing Recent events in Washington suggest that, with fiscal policy largely tapped-out and monetary policy ineffective, trade protection policies are becoming more appealing. Import tariffs are not the first... 18th October 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Asia set to weaken but still outperform A slowdown in developed economies in 2012-13 is set to pull down growth in emerging Asia to a below-trend pace. However, the region’s healthy fundamentals mean that emerging Asia should once again be... 6th October 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek budget does not eliminate near-term default risks New fiscal measures announced by the Greek Government may have reduced the risks of an imminent disorderly default. But policymakers still face a battle to agree a deal to cover Greece’s financing... 5th October 2011 · 1 min read
