UK Economic Outlook Will the external sector rescue the recovery? There are a number of reasons to remain optimistic about the outlook for the UK’s external sector. Admittedly, these are likely to be outweighed in the near-term by the knock on effects of the euro... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Credit crunch has passed in US but not in the euro-zone Credit growth and lending conditions are improving gradually in the US but are still extremely weak in the euro-zone. This divergence looks likely to continue or widen in the coming months... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is government spending falling? Recent claims that, despite the fiscal squeeze, government spending is still rising in real terms have revived the debate about whether the spending plans are actually as tough as they look. But while... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Better export growth will help bolster GDP growth We expect GDP growth to slow after the first quarter, as consumption growth fades and housing investment begins to decline. Only a pick-up in business investment growth and a positive contribution... 27th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2012: Not rocking the boat This was a neutral, steady-as-she-goes budget, with few implications for the macro-economy. From his speech, the Chancellor came across as wanting to be radical, but the measures failed to live up to... 21st March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update 2012 Budget - Stamp Duty takes centre stage again The new higher rate of stamp duty for £2m-plus properties, as well as a clampdown on avoidance schemes, is likely to dampen activity at the top end of the London housing market. But we doubt that the... 21st March 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India takes modest steps to correct budget deficit The Indian budget for 2012/13, presented to parliament today, incorporates some significant tax hikes and should be viewed positively by the markets and the central bank. The main concern, though, is... 16th March 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Slovakian election puts fiscal policy under the spotlight Victory for the left-wing populist Smer party in Slovakia’s parliamentary election this weekend is likely to cause alarm that the commitment to austerity is fraying. While it is undoubtedly necessary... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2012 Preview The Chancellor’s resolve to stick to his austerity plans appears to be as strong as ever. We expect another fiscally neutral Budget, with flagship measures such as another rise in the personal tax... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Questions over credibility of China’s budget China’s budget planners have a history of wildly underestimating revenue growth, usually making actual net spending by the government far less supportive to the economy than originally planned. The... 5th March 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Policymakers in wait-and-see mode The trend in Asia has been towards loosening policy recently. However, signs of stronger global growth and the pick-up in oil prices are likely to persuade central banks across the region to keep... 5th March 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How much will the auto-subsidy boost GDP? The reintroduction of a government subsidy on fuel-efficient vehicles propelled a big increase in retail spending and industrial production in January. The subsidy should provide some support to auto... 5th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will stubborn inflation scupper recovery hopes? Recent euro-zone price developments suggest that inflation will remain stubbornly high over the coming months and damage previous hopes that sharp falls in inflation would partly offset the negative... 5th March 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How much will fiscal austerity constrain the recovery? Governments in most advanced economies have been tightening fiscal policy since 2010 and will continue to do so this year. Our best guess is that growth in 2012 will consequently be around 0.5... 23rd February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Counting the fiscal costs of Putin's pledges We estimate that, if fully implemented, the various pledges made by PM Putin over the past couple of months would cause government spending to rise by Rb4.8trn by 2018 (equivalent to 4-5% of GDP)... 21st February 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Taking stock of Brazil's budget cuts Despite cutting some R$55bn in spending from its 2012 budget, Brazil’s government may still fall short of its fiscal target for this year. That would not necessarily be a disaster from the point of... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
