Europe Economics Update What might a bail-out for Spain look like? Events are moving fast in Spain. After denials from Spanish government officials in recent months about the need for a bail-out, external assistance now seems inevitable with EU officials reported to... 7th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update A fiscal ‘free lunch’? The debate around fiscal policy has tended to become polarised between advocates of austerity, who argue that any relaxation of deficit reduction would bring down the wrath of markets, and opponents... 6th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (May) Recent fiscal data suggest that Greece and Spain will struggle to meet their existing budget deficit forecasts for 2012 without implementing further austerity measures. But for now at least, the... 29th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Policymakers have little room for manoeuvre This week’s dismal first quarter GDP data will sharpen the debate over whether policymakers in Emerging Europe should pursue austerity or focus on growth. But in reality, while there is scope for one... 17th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What will a euro-zone break-up involve? Our view that the euro-zone needs to break up has become more widely accepted, but many commentators still argue that, in practical terms, it simply can’t happen. In this Focus, we outline the... 17th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Recovery looks to be on firmer ground The US recovery looks to be on firmer ground, despite the mounting crisis in the euro-zone. We anticipate GDP growth of 2.0% this year and 2.5% in 2013. 17th May 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia on course for a budget surplus in 2012-13 Australia’s government retained its target of returning to a small budget surplus in 2012-13 in today’s federal budget. Solid economic growth and public spending restraint should help the government... 8th May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Growing risk of fiscal crises in the oil-poor Arab countries One of the most striking – and often overlooked – developments in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) following the Arab Spring has been the stark divergence in the fiscal health of the region’s... 4th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s fiscal woes an obstacle to EU-IMF deal Fresh concerns about the Hungarian government’s willingness to accept the conditions for help from the EU and IMF have led to renewed tensions in its financial markets. Attention has focused on... 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Fiscal austerity will dampen GDP growth this year Fiscal austerity measures across various levels of government will dampen economic growth this year. While the federal government's 2012 budget will have a relatively minor impact, the fiscal... 2nd April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Bigger firewall is a small step forward The reported plans to increase the size of the euro-zone bail-out fund - hopefully to be agreed at today’s (Friday’s) Eurogroup meeting - provide some encouragement that the policymakers have... 2nd April 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia - losing its shine? Indonesia’s stock market and currency have been among the worst performing assets in Asia so far this year. The poor performance reflects worries over proposed cuts to fuel subsidies, which will... 2nd April 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Raising the consumption tax: a small step forward The government has finally succeeded in submitting a bill to parliament to increase the consumption tax. This is has been a long time coming and is an important step forward in putting the public... 2nd April 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Budget austerity will constrain economic growth Despite an already modest deficit, the new federal budget includes plans to forge ahead with austerity measures that are likely to restrain economic growth. We doubt that the economy will perform as... 30th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Mar.) Recent news from Spain suggests that the Government may be falling further behind its fiscal targets, but the other troubled euro-zone governments have made a better start to the year. 29th March 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: from sweet spot to tough spot? The Russian economy is in a sweet spot for now: inflation is at record lows and growth is strong. But we doubt that this will last. Indeed, the authorities are likely to find themselves in an awkward... 29th March 2012 · 1 min read
